The Miami Hurricanes have been keeping their fans on edge lately, earning the fitting nickname “Miami Heart Attacks.” However, with a bye week behind them, can Mario Cristobal’s team put those tense moments behind them and stay on track in their pursuit of an ACC title?
Meanwhile, the Louisville Cardinals, once considered strong contenders for the ACC title, are now facing a must-win scenario after a few stumbles. Will Miami preserve its unbeaten run, or can Louisville reignite its championship hopes? Here’s our breakdown of what to expect in the Miami vs. Louisville matchup.
Miami vs. Louisville Betting Preview
All Miami vs. Louisville odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -6 - Spread
Miami -5 - Moneyline
Miami -192, Louisville +160 - Over/Under
60.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium | Louisville, KY - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, sunny, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
As the week has progressed, the oddsmakers have swung closer to the original CFN FPM spread line, showcasing that Vegas perhaps still underestimates the Hurricanes in this 2024 college football season. Miami was a 3.5-point favorite to open, moving to five points by Wednesday. There’s a strong chance that the Miami vs. Louisville odds will align with the CFN FPM by Saturday.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Is backing Miami to cover a risk, however? The Hurricanes are 3-3 covering the spread this fall after two narrow wins (Virginia Tech, Cal) as a double-digit favorite. They did cover the only other time they were favored by under 10 points. Furthermore, Louisville has failed to cover in each of their last four games — with a push in the only game they were an underdog this fall.
Miami’s Winning Probability
The Hurricanes are bigger favorites with FPM than in Vegas. Miami has a 65.7% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about six points.
The Hurricanes have a path to being undefeated as they’re favored in every remaining game, though a couple are close.
- at Louisville: 65.7%
- vs. Florida State: 93.5%
- vs. Duke: 87.2%
- at Georgia Tech: 66.4%
- vs. Wake Forest: 93.1%
- at Syracuse: 74.9%
Louisville’s Winning Probability
The Cardinals have a 34.3% chance to win the game, per FPM. The Cardinals have a tough schedule down the stretch, as they’ll only be favored by more than three points in one remaining game.
- vs. Miami: 34.3%
- at Boston College: 51.2%
- at Clemson: 24.5%
- at Stanford: 75.3%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 54.3%
- at Kentucky: 49.2%
Prediction for Miami vs. Louisville
Miami has narrowly escaped with wins in its last two games, but the Hurricanes generally outperformed their opponents, with their biggest challenge being California’s potent passing game. That’s a key concern heading into a matchup with Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks—Brooks has been the Cardinals’ top target in every game this season.
When Shough is in rhythm, he’s among the top quarterbacks in the ACC. Yet, as a seventh-year senior, he’s prone to making a few costly errors each game.
The Louisville passing game could exploit Miami’s secondary, but Shough will need to steer clear of the mistakes that stall drives early—things like interceptions and avoidable penalties, such as delays of game and procedural miscues.
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On the other hand, Louisville’s defense has struggled to create disruption. They rank 115th in sack rate and have only one interception on the season. Most of their six turnovers have come from fumbled snaps or against weaker, non-Power Four opponents.
Meanwhile, Miami’s quarterback, Cam Ward, has found success despite the occasional puzzling interception. Against a defense with the fifth-lowest interception rate in the FBS, he might avoid the critical pick-sixes that have troubled him lately.
Louisville’s run defense is strong against running backs, but quarterbacks have had a field day. Every FBS opponent they’ve faced has seen their quarterback lead in rushing yards, including big games from Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea and SMU’s Kevin Jennings in recent weeks.
All things considered, I expect Cam Ward to rack up significant rushing yards—possibly even breaking the 100-yard mark on the ground, while also delivering a strong passing performance with fewer mistakes. If that happens, it’s hard to see Miami losing. Even if one aspect doesn’t go as planned, Ward might just deliver a Heisman-caliber performance on Saturday.
Take the Hurricanes and the points while others are banking on a potential upset.
Prediction: Miami 41, Louisville 23
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