The Miami Hurricanes have been giving their fans more anxiety than comfort, earning the nickname “Miami Heart Attacks” recently. But coming off a bye week, can Mario Cristobal’s squad shake off those nail-biting moments and focus on their pursuit of an ACC title?
The Louisville Cardinals, once seen as a top contender for the ACC crown, now find themselves in a must-win situation after a couple of setbacks. Will Miami maintain its unbeaten streak, or can Louisville revive its championship aspirations? Here’s our take on how the Miami vs. Louisville showdown will unfold.
Miami vs. Louisville Betting Preview
All Miami vs. Louisville odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -6 - Spread
Miami -5 - Moneyline
Miami -192, Louisville +160 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium | Louisville, KY - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, sunny, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
As the week has progressed, the oddsmakers have swung closer to the original CFN FPM spread line, showcasing that Vegas perhaps still underestimates the Hurricanes in this 2024 college football season. Miami was a 3.5-point favorite to open, moving to five points by Wednesday. There’s a strong chance that the Miami vs. Louisville odds will align with the CFN FPM by Saturday.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Is backing Miami to cover a risk, however? The Hurricanes are 3-3 covering the spread this fall after two narrow wins (Virginia Tech, Cal) as a double-digit favorite. They did cover the only other time they were favored by under 10 points. Furthermore, Louisville has failed to cover in each of their last four games — with a push in the only game they were an underdog this fall.
Miami’s Winning Probability
The Hurricanes are bigger favorites with FPM than in Vegas. Miami has a 65.7% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about six points.
The Hurricanes have a path to being undefeated as they’re favored in every remaining game, though a couple are close. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Louisville: 65.7%
- vs. Florida State: 93.5%
- vs. Duke: 87.2%
- at Georgia Tech: 66.4%
- vs. Wake Forest: 93.1%
- at Syracuse: 74.9%
Louisville’s Winning Probability
The Cardinals have a 34.3% chance to win the game, per FPM. The Cardinals have a tough schedule down the stretch, as they’ll only be favored by more than three points in one remaining game. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Miami: 34.3%
- at Boston College: 51.2%
- at Clemson: 24.5%
- at Stanford: 75.3%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 54.3%
- at Kentucky: 49.2%
Prediction for Miami vs. Louisville
Miami managed to scrape by in its last two games, but the Hurricanes generally outperformed their opponents, with their main struggle being California’s explosive passing attack. That’s a serious concern against Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks—Brooks has been the top target in every game this season for the Cardinals.
Shough, when he’s in rhythm, ranks among the top quarterbacks in the ACC. However, as a seventh-year senior, he’s prone to making a few careless mistakes each game.
The Louisville passing game has the potential to exploit Miami’s secondary, but Shough needs to avoid the kind of mistakes that kill drives early—not just interceptions, but also avoidable penalties like delays of game and procedural errors.
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On the flip side, Louisville’s defense struggles to create chaos. They rank 115th in sack rate and have only managed one interception all season. Their six turnovers have mostly come from fumbled snaps or against weaker, non-Power Four competition.
Meanwhile, Miami’s quarterback, Cam Ward, finds success despite his occasional baffling interceptions. Facing a defense with the fifth-lowest interception rate in the FBS, he might avoid the costly pick-sixes that have plagued him recently.
Louisville’s run defense is tough against running backs, but quarterbacks have had a field day. Every FBS opponent they’ve faced has seen their quarterback lead in rushing yards, including big games from Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea and SMU’s Kevin Jennings in recent weeks.
All things considered, I expect Cam Ward to rack up significant rushing yards—he could even top 100 on the ground, alongside a big passing performance and fewer mistakes. If that happens, it’s hard to see Miami losing. Even if one of those factors doesn’t come through, Ward might just have a Heisman-worthy game on Saturday.
Take the Hurricanes and the points while others are betting on a potential upset.
Prediction: Miami 41, Louisville 23
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