The Miami Hurricanes and California Golden Bears have only faced off four times, with their last meeting back in 2008. The series is tied at 2-2. So, who will break the deadlock in Week 6?
Get the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our pick in this Miami vs. California prediction ahead of Saturday’s ACC showdown.
Miami (FL) vs. California Betting Preview
All Miami vs. California odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -11.5 - Spread
Miami -10 - Moneyline
Miami -395, California +310 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, 7 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
After opening at Miami -10 with a 53.5 total, both numbers had risen by a couple of points. Why? Well, the Hurricanes are second in the country in both yards (585.6) and points (49.4) per game. Those have settled back down to nearly where they opened, however, at -10 and 54 points on Friday.
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With one of the best offenses in the country, it’s not surprising the over is 4-0-1 in Miami games this season. Yet, it’s 0-4 when Cal is on the field, so the total likely hinges on whether the Bears can contribute enough points to push the scoring over the threshold.
Miami’s Winning Probability
There’s little doubt Miami will leave California with a victory, as the CFN’s FPM gives the program an 81.1% win probability. If anything, that may be a little low, considering the Golden Bears just lost 14-9 to a disappointing Florida State program.
- at Louisville: 61.9%
- vs. Florida State: 93.5%
- vs. Duke: 88.3%
- at Georgia Tech: 66.9%
- vs. Wake Forest: 93.1%
- at Syracuse: 75.3%
Cal’s Winning Probability
By way of subtraction, that gives the Golden Bears a win probability of 18.9%. Playing at home certainly boosts their chances, but they’ll need a near-flawless performance to capitalize against the undefeated ‘Canes.
At least Week 6 marks Cal’s most one-sided projection the rest of the way.
- at Pittsburgh: 32.3%
- vs. NC State: 52.8%
- vs. Oregon State: 53.4%
- at Wake Forest: 51.2%
- vs. Syracuse: 49.4%
- vs. Stanford: 64.6%
- at SMU: 32.3%
Prediction Miami (FL) vs. California
Cal’s offensive game plan was built around former All-Pac-12 RB Jaydn Ott and a powerful ground game. But with Ott slowed by an ankle injury, the Bears have struggled, managing just 3.86 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Miami has thrived in every facet this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 34.4 points per game. Led by Heisman hopeful Cam Ward, the Hurricanes boast one of the most electric offenses in the nation, ranking fourth in EPA per play and ninth in success rate.
Their defense has been equally dominant, sitting 13th in EPA per play.
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Cal’s numbers paint a bleak picture, with the offense ranked 112th in EPA per play and the defense at 65th in success rate. Miami’s disruptive front, which averages 8.0 tackles for loss per game, is set to take control in the trenches.
Combined with their high pass volume (36.2 attempts per game), the Hurricanes are well-positioned to cover the spread comfortably and make a statement after a close call against Virginia Tech last week.
Prediction: Miami 41, Cal 17
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