The Mercer Bears’ playoff journey came to an end in 2023 with a tough loss to the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the second round. Can they rewrite the script this year against another Missouri Valley Football Conference powerhouse, the North Dakota State Bison?
Our Mercer vs. North Dakota State prediction dives deep into everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they battle in the FCS quarterfinals.
Mercer vs. North Dakota State FCS Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Mercer vs. North Dakota State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024.
- Spread
North Dakota State -22.5 - Moneyline
North Dakota State -2400, Mercer +1074 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 14 - Location
Fargodome | Fargo, N. Dak. - Predicted Weather at Kick
24 degrees, 8 mph winds, cloudy - How To Watch
ABC/ESPN+
Mercer is 1-1 as an underdog this year, failing to cover the 42-point spread against the Alabama Crimson Tide just a few weeks ago.
However, the program is 4-1 against the spread on the road entering their matchup in Fargo.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
That’s especially notable considering North Dakota State is just 2-5 ATS as 20+ point favorites this year.
As far as the total, these teams are riding opposite trends:
- The under has hit in three of the Bears’ last five games.
- The over has cashed in four of the Bison’s last five.
Prediction for Mercer vs. North Dakota State
NDSU head coach Tim Polasek addressed his team’s slow starts in recent games during a press conference this week, and his response should fire up both players and fans alike.
“I think we’re looking ahead. Like it’s not big enough for us. It’s not big enough for anybody just to be in a quarterfinal game … or the second round of the playoffs. It is damn big enough. It is. And that’s gotta be the main focus. It’s the Super Bowl this weekend. And it’s Mercer, and we’re zeroed in.”
MORE: Simulate the College Football Playoffs With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Bison have reached the quarterfinals 15 straight seasons—this is where they expect to be.
Mercer, on the other hand, is making its first-ever appearance in the FCS quarterfinals.
There’s a clear gap in experience, and NDSU will prove as much on Saturday.
The Bears’ No. 1-ranked run defense (66.0 yards per game) might challenge the Bison, but QB Cam Miller has shown he can air it out. His 73.7% completion rate, 2,614 passing yards, 26 TDs, and just two INTs this season speak for themselves.
On the other side, Mercer’s offense will rely on freshman QB Whitt Newbauer. While the 6’6” rookie has stepped up admirably for D.J. Smith, he’ll face an uphill battle against a seasoned NDSU defense. Add in Mercer’s ground-heavy offense—something the Bison are built to counter coming from the MVFC—and it’s hard to see the Bears breaking through.
Take NDSU to win and cover in a relatively low-scoring contest.
Prediction: North Dakota State 31, Mercer 13
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