The Mercer Bears are no new opponent for the Crimson Tide, as the two have faced off four times: 1939 (20-0), 1940 (20-0), 2017 (56-0), and 2021 (48-14). Of course, the FCS program lost all four of those games, but the 2021 iteration saw the Bears cover the spread as 54-point underdogs. Can they do so again in Week 12?
Our Mercer vs. Alabama preview dives into the showdown, offering key betting insights to guide your picks.
Mercer vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Mercer vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -41.5 - Spread
Alabama -41.5 - Moneyline
Not Listed - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
2:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
67 degrees, 3 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
SECN+/ESPN+
The Bears have been favored in all but one game this season and are 7-3 against the spread. Alabama’s 5-4 ATS record isn’t as impressive, especially when considering they haven’t covered in their three games as 20+ point favorites.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the total, the under is the trendy play, as it has hit in four of Mercer’s five road games this season and in three straight Crimson Tide contents.
Mercer’s Winning Probability
The Bears are the No. 7 FCS team in the nation, with their only loss coming against the Samford in Bulldogs mid-October. Will they pull off the unthinkable upset? No, but they can keep the game more competitive than casual fans may realize.
A loss to a ranked FBS team won’t knock Mercer out of the FCS Top 10, and the program gets a nice rebound spot to finish the regular season with the 2-7 Furman Paladins coming to town.
- at Alabama: 0.01%
Alabama’s Winning Probability
The Crimson Tide don’t need to be 100% focused to beat the Bears, but they do need to be if they hope to cover the 40+ point spread. However, Alabama’s main focus is on winning out, as that’s their path to the expanded College Football Playoff and a long-shot spot in the SEC Championship.
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.1%
Prediction for Mercer vs. Alabama
Unfortunately for the Bears, the Crimson Tide is red hot right now. They shut out the Missouri Tigers 34-0 and embarrassed the LSU Tigers 42-13 over their last two games, allowing just one touchdown to six takeaways.
The offense hasn’t even needed dual-threat QB Jalen Milroe to air it out, with the ground attack generating 582 yards and 10 scores across both games. Yeah, Mercer is in for a long one.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, it’s a long one they can survive. While the defense hasn’t looked nearly as dominant since the loss to Samford, they still rank eighth in points (16.6), 10th in total yards (291.5), and first in rushing yards allowed per game (54.7).
Oh, and the Bears are first in third-down rate (21.4%), although it may be difficult to even force money downs against the Crimson Tide.
There is no moneyline in this one for a reason — Alabama is winning. However, all Mercer needs to do is keep the game within 40 points, and with a defense out to prove itself, the Bears can make things interesting enough to cover the spread, even if they can’t stop the Crimson Tide from rolling to a one-sided victory.
Prediction: Alabama 42, Mercer 10
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