Memphis vs. UTSA Prediction: The Roadrunners Become Wile E. Coyote in Week 10

    The Tigers should win in Week 10, but do the Roadrunners have enough firepower to hit the over? Dive into our Memphis vs. UTSA prediction to find out.

    The Memphis Tigers and UTSA Roadrunners have only met once, with UTSA winning 31-28 in 2021. However, that’s old history, with the Tigers 7-1 on the year and the Roadrunners staring down the barrel of their first losing season since 2019.

    In our Memphis vs. UTSA preview, we dive into the matchup, offer essential betting insights, and provide tips to help you make the best wagering decisions.

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    Memphis vs. UTSA Betting Preview

    All Memphis vs. UTSA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Memphis -13
    • Spread
      Memphis -7.5
    • Moneyline
      Memphis -278, UTSA +225
    • Over/Under
      60.5 points
    • Game Time
      Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 2
    • Location
      Alamodome | San Antonio, Texas
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      75 degrees, 10 mph winds, thunderstorm
    • How To Watch
      ESPN2

    Memphis opened as six-point favorites but has seen the line increase since. However, the program is only 1-4 against the spread in the last five games, so the larger spread raises questions about their ability to cover.

    It’s not as if UTSA has performed any better, though, going 2-6 ATS this season.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    What about the total? Recent trends point to the over hitting, as it has done so in:

    • 13 of Memphis’ last 19 games
    • Six of Memphis’ last seven vs. AAC opponents
    • Five of UTSA’s last seven contests

    Memphis’ Winning Probability

    The Tigers need to win out in order to have a shot at the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff bid. Outside of a season finale road matchup with the Tulane Green Wave, the FPM likes their odds.

    • at UTSA: 82.8%
    • vs. Rice: 87.4%
    • vs. UAB: 92.3%
    • at Tulane: 44.4%

    UTSA’s Winning Probability

    Jeff Traylor and Co. need three wins to become bowl-eligible. They may only get one by the end of the season, as their average win probability the rest of the way is 32.7%.

    • vs. Memphis: 17.2%
    • vs. North Texas: 46.2%
    • vs. Temple: 58.9%
    • at Army: 8.3%

    Prediction for Memphis vs. UTSA

    While the Roadrunners are 3-5 on the year, they haven’t lost at home since Sept. 15, 2023. Unfortunately, no streak lasts forever.

    Memphis has only dropped one game this season (56-44 to the Navy Midshipmen early in the year), and a lackluster UTSA squad isn’t going to add to that total.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    There’s no need to dive deep into the analytics here — they speak for themselves:

    • Turnover differential: Memphis +11, UTSA -1
    • Penalties (yards): Memphis 40 (368), UTSA 76 (715)
    • Sacks allowed: Memphis 11, UTSA 23
    • Rushing YPG (YPA): Memphis 168.9 (5.0), UTSA 138.9 (3.5)

    Yeah, the Tigers are winning this one, and it won’t be particularly close.

    Prediction: Memphis 40, UTSA 17

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