Our Memphis vs. USF prediction breaks down the matchup, highlights key betting tips, and guides you on where to place your wagers.
The last time these teams squared off, they combined for 109 points and over 1,100 yards of offense. Will we see another high-scoring showdown on Saturday afternoon?
Memphis vs. USF Betting Preview
All Memphis vs. South Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Memphis -3.5 - Spread
Memphis -9 - Moneyline
Memphis -290, USF +235 - Over/Under
59 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. Saturday, October 12 - Location
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, 10 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN
After opening with Memphis as a five-point favorite and a 62.5-point total, the line has since moved in favor of Memphis, while the betting market anticipates a lower-scoring affair.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Both teams are ahead against the spread, with the Tigers 6-2 in their last eight and USF 5-2 in their last seven.
Even with the total dropping by a few points, the under could still be the play, as it has hit in four of Memphis’ last five games and four of USF’s last six.
Memphis’ Winning Probability
Outside of the season finale against Tulane, Memphis is favored to come out on top in every game on the schedule, beginning with a 60.6% win probability against USF.
Here are the Tigers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. North Texas: 79.3%
- vs. Charlotte: 84.2%
- at UTSA: 77.4%
- vs. Rice: 84.2%
- vs. UAB: 88.3%
- at Tulane: 49.2%
South Florida’s Winning Probability
USF’s odds of winning this week sit at 39.4%, but fret not, Bulls fans, as the outlook is a lot more positive down the stretch.
Here are the Bulls’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. UAB: 75.5%
- at FAU: 80.2%
- vs. Navy: 48.2%
- at Charlotte: 73.8%
- vs. Tulsa: 75.5%
- at Rice: 73.8%
Prediction for Memphis vs. South Florida
The USF defense has been, well, to put it plainly, suspect in 2024. The Bulls are allowing yards at will and giving little pushback to what offenses want to do schematically all season long.
It came back to bite them in the second half of their game against Miami and has plagued them in their lone AAC game of the season against Tulane, who they allowed to score 45 points.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
A matter of undisciplined football that has also been an issue in 2024:
Penalties per game:
- Memphis: 4.6, t-16th
- USF: 8.2, t-117th
Third-down conversation rate:
- Memphis: 48.5, 24th
- USF: 40.8%, 67th
For Memphis, they’re led by veteran signal-caller Seth Henigan. The Tigers QB has set all sorts of Memphis single-season and is on the verge of nearly every career record for Tiger QBs, but most noticeably, he has led Memphis to more wins in successive years since he took over as the starter in 2021.
Memphis has College Football Playoff aspirations, and their eyes are set on the grandest of prizes with Henigan pulling the strings. With his decorated talent and ever-improving hold over the offense, expect a defense who has been suspect to have a lot of points scored on them in this one.
Prediction: Memphis 38, USF 10
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