Following a 3-0 start to the season, Memphis entered Week 4 with the second-highest odds of making the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. But after disintegrating against Navy, where do the Tigers stand?
Week 4 Loss to Navy Tanks Memphis’ College Football Playoff Odds
According to College Football Network’s all-new College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), Memphis had a 77.6% chance of making the postseason dance. That was second only to Texas (93.5%), largely thanks to the Tigers’ projected strength of schedule the rest of the way.
With wins over North Alabama (40-0), Troy (38-17), and Florida State (20-12) — which Memphis received $1.3 million to come into Tallahassee for — head coach Ryan Silverfield’s squad was the team to beat in the Group of Five.
In fact, the Tigers held the second best win out (20.7%) and win conference rates entering the week. Their only obvious potential upset spots were a road visit to USF and a season finale bout against Tulane, and Army and Navy were the only other undefeated teams in the conference.
However, Memphis, particularly the defense, slept on the Midshipmen, allowing QB Blake Horvath to go ballistic: 9-of-12 passing for 192 yards and two touchdowns, plus 211 yards and four more scores on 12 rushing attempts.
QB Seth Henigan and Co. did their best to keep up, but their 44 points were still 12 less than Navy’s 56. So, what’s next?
Memphis’ loss opens the door for Liberty and the Mountain West’s leaders (UNLV, Boise State, Fresno State, and San Jose State) to take the Group of Five Crown. If Liberty and UNLV, who are both currently undefeated, win out and win their conferences, the Tigers would have no chance of making the CFP.
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Even if those two lose, if Boise State runs the gauntlet, their only loss came against Oregon by three points, which will look far better than the Tigers’ defeat to Navy. In short, Memphis’ path to the College Football Playoff now hinges on not only running the table but also hoping for a series of upsets across the Group of Five contenders.
The FPM will be updated Sunday morning, with a far more comprehensive list of winners and losers coming early next week, providing you with an in-depth look at how Week 4 results reshaped the playoff landscape and which teams’ postseason hopes are rising or fading.
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