There’s only one team that can truly feel confident about securing a spot in the College Football Playoff this year: the Oregon Ducks. Sitting atop the rankings, they have an incredibly smooth path to close out the regular season.
But while winning out seems inevitable, how will Dan Lanning handle his star players’ minutes? Will Dillon Gabriel’s Heisman push shape the game plan? What’s the strategy for three matchups where the Ducks are expected to dominate? And how will their comfortable position affect their performance against the spread this weekend when they face the Maryland Terrapins at home?
College football betting often goes beyond the numbers, and in our Maryland vs. Oregon prediction, we’ll dive into all these questions—and more.
Maryland vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Maryland vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -28 - Spread
Oregon -24 - Moneyline
Oregon -2800, Maryland +1300 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium | Eugene, Ore. - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, cloudy, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Oregon got through the meat of the schedule unscathed, and at 9-0, a perfect regular season seems extremely likely. On the flip side, Maryland is searching for some sort of marquee win as its USC victory seems less important now.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a spread of 24 points and a total of 58 points, Vegas expects a blowout. The implied final score is close to 41-17 in favor of the Ducks.
Maryland’s Winning Probability
FPM doesn’t give Maryland much of a chance at all in two of its remaining four games. That means the Terrapins’ bowl hopes lie in pulling off back-to-back smaller upsets in the games between Saturday and the finale against Penn State. Maryland has just a 1.4% chance of winning in Eugene, per FPM.
- at Oregon: 1.4%
- vs. Rutgers: 47.5%
- vs. Iowa: 24.7%
- at Penn State: 5.6%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Oregon is heavily favored in every remaining game, with only a trip to Wisconsin having a winning probability under 93%. The Ducks have a 98.4% chance to win Saturday, per FPM, and have an 81% chance to finish the regular season undefeated.
- vs. Maryland: 98.4%
- at Wisconsin: 88.1%
- vs. Washington: 93.6%
Prediction for Maryland vs. Oregon
Maryland is clearly outmatched in this matchup, but the line and total raise some interesting questions.
The Terrapins are 3-5 against the spread this season and have failed to cover in three of their last four games. Despite their recent offensive struggles, Vegas seems to think Maryland can put up some points on Saturday.
Maybe that’s due to their ability to score in garbage time against stronger opponents, but it feels like Oregon could stick to a vanilla offensive game plan and still cruise to an easy win.
That said, I have some doubts about Oregon’s motivation to maintain full throttle.
With a 12-team playoff format, even a top-seeded team with a bye would need to play 16 games to win the CFP National Championship. If the Ducks were to lose in the Big Ten title game, it would take a grueling 17 games to hoist the trophy. At some point, load management could become a factor, and Oregon might be the first team to take advantage of that opportunity.
The Ducks are heavy favorites to finish the regular season undefeated, so why risk unnecessary wear and tear?
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Take Jordan Burch, for example—he’s dealt with injuries this year. Or Tez Johnson, who’s already ruled out for Saturday. Will Oregon rush to bring him back for a potential clash with Washington, or wait until the Big Ten Championship Game? These are the kinds of decisions that could influence how Oregon approaches games like this one.
For bettors, these questions matter. While a 24-point spread doesn’t seem huge on paper, Maryland’s Billy Edwards Jr. and Tai Felton are capable of breaking off a big play or two, especially if Dan Lanning opts to rotate in backups early.
On paper, Oregon is unquestionably more than 24 points better than Maryland. But Lanning is the kind of coach who prioritizes the bigger picture, and covering a late-season spread isn’t his focus.
I’ll take Maryland to cover, probably through a late backdoor effort, but my stronger play is on the under. Oregon got conservative offensively in the second half last week, and I’d expect more of the same if they build an early lead.
Play the under, and if you’re feeling adventurous, sprinkle a small bet on the Terrapins to cover.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Maryland 14
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