The Sun Belt Championship Game promises to be a spicy affair as Cajun Field plays host to the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns and Marshall Thundering Herd on Saturday evening.
Who will come out on top? Our Marshall vs. Louisiana prediction examines the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the winner of the Sun Belt Championship Game.
Marshall vs. Louisiana Betting Preview
All Marshall vs. Louisiana odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisiana -3 - Spread
Louisiana -4 - Moneyline
Louisiana -180, Marshall +150 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Cajun Field | Lafayette, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, mostly cloudy with showers, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN
As it’s just the third season that Marshall has played in the Sun Belt, there isn’t a rich history between the Thundering Herd and Ragin’ Cajuns. The two teams have collided just twice, with Louisiana emerging victorious on both occasions (2021 and 2022). Michael Desormeaux’s team is favored to extend their undefeated record against Marshall in the Sun Belt title game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Louisiana has already lost as a favorite once this season, coming up short against the South Alabama Jaguars. They’ve also struggled to cover the spread as a favorite, putting together a 5-4 ATS record in that position. Meanwhile, Marshall is 4-0 ATS as an underdog and overcame the outright odds to win their last two games of the season. The two are 12-12 hitting the over.
Marshall’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Marshall has a 42.6% chance of beating Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Although the Thundering Herd overcame the expectation of our metric to beat the James Madison Dukes, it has been largely in lockstep with the team during the 2024 college football regular season.
- at Louisiana: 42.6%
Louisiana’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Louisiana has a 57.4% chance of beating Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Other than the defeat to South Alabama, our metric has accurately projected the Ragin’ Cajuns’ season, including the win over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, where oddsmakers had them as an underdog.
- vs. Marshall: 57.4%
Prediction for Marshall vs. Louisiana
Louisiana and Marshall booked their tickets to the Sun Belt Championship Game on Saturday night, but due to complex tie-breakers, they had to wait until Sunday to learn where the title game would be held. Now, the two prepare to face off at Cajun Field for the right to be crowned the conference champions.
10-2 Louisiana looks to secure its first Sun Belt title since 2021 in their fifth visit to the title game. Can they overcome their perennial bridesmaid tag, or will a 9-3 Marshall team deny the Ragin’ Cajuns in their first-ever Sun Belt Championship Game appearance? Who has the edge? Where will this game be won, and who ends their season on a high as conference champions?
Charles Huff has done an incredible job with the Thundering Herd, and it beggars belief that an undercurrent of negativity surrounds the head coach. Marshall was picked to finish fifth in the Sun Belt East Division preseason poll, but behind a dangerous ground game and a defense led by one of the best pass rushers in the nation, they secured the divisional title.
Huff’s team certainly has the potential to win the Sun Belt on Saturday. Mike Green leads the nation in tackles for loss (21) and the Sun Belt in sacks (16) and can cause all manners of disruption to the Louisiana offense. Additionally, former Wake Forest defensive back J.J. Roberts has been phenomenal in the secondary, notching a Sun Belt-high 14 pass breakups.
Offensively, A.J. Turner is one of the most explosive running backs in the country. Alongside dual-threat QB Braylon Braxton, they power the 19th-ranked ground game in the country. Meanwhile, Marshall boasts a top-40 scoring offense in the country, with their 31.9 points per game also ranking fourth in the conference ahead of their date with destiny.
While Marshall can win on Saturday, Louisiana is favored for a reason. Another team overcoming their preseason Sun belt ranking (third in the West Division), the Ragin’ Cajuns have found their groove in the third year under Desormeaux.
The program built a reputation for suffocating defenses under previous head coach Billy Napier, and there’s certainly been an element of that this season. Louisiana has allowed just 22.8 points per game as a top 50 unit nationally. Tyrone Lewis Jr., Kody Jackson, and Tyree Skipper have helped fuel a defense that ranks second in the Sun Belt for interceptions.
They’ve also done a good job of limiting rushing touchdowns and explosive rushing plays, and that might be the difference-maker on Saturday. Meanwhile, the offense has a nice level of balance between the rushing talent of Elijah Davis, Zylan Perry, and Dre’lyn Washington, and the pass-game combination of QB Ben Wooldridge and TE Terrance Carter and WR Lance Legendre.
Between offensive balance, defensive strength, and home-field advantage, Louisiana should be able to land the Sun Belt title.
Prediction: Marshall 27, Louisiana 30
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