The race to the MAC Championship Game will be decided in Week 14. By virtue of the MAC’s mid-week scheduling, we’ll have the title game wrapped up by mid-day Friday as all four teams in contention play before Saturday.
Here’s how the MAC Championship Game scenarios could unfold.
MAC Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines are out:
- Bowling Green: +125
- Ohio: +180
- Miami-OH: +260
- Buffalo: +6000
As indicated, the road map for Buffalo is much more difficult than the three Ohio-based schools. Don’t believe the Vegas lines? Then, leave it to our Playoff Predictor to indicate just how difficult it is.
MAC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Ohio 44.28%
- Miami-OH 38.19%
- Bowling Green 17.47%
- Buffalo 0.04%
The numbers above are how many times each team made the MAC Championship Game and subsequently won the conference in the process. Buffalo made it on less than 100 of the 10,000 sims and won it even fewer times.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Here’s how each team could make it happen and what they need to have unfold their way in order to make to the MAC Championship.
MAC Championship Game Scenarios
To make this incredibly clear, let’s get this as short as possible. Here’s how each team can make the MAC Championship Game, but scroll down for the full explanation.
- Ohio: Win and in
- Bowling Green: Win and in
- Miami: Win and in
- Buffalo: Win, Miami win, Eastern Michigan win, Central Michigan loss
So that’s three play-in teams and one team — the Buffalo Bulls — who need absolute chaos to survive and advance. Let’s break them all down because there’s more for each team, especially with a loss.
Ohio’s MAC Championship Road Map
This one is the easiest part of the group because they play independently of the trio at the top. If Ohio wins their matchup against Ball State on Friday afternoon, they punch their ticket into the MAC Championship Game.
Ohio isn’t completely out of it with a loss, but the tiebreaking scenarios for Ohio to come out on top would be dependent on every other team in the MAC, specifically the directional Michigan teams, including Eastern and Central Michigan.
Long story short, Ohio is a win-and-in team, nearly as much as they’re a lose-and-out team. CFN’s Football Playoff Meter gives the Bobcats a pretty heavy chance to come out on top.
- Ohio’s winning probability vs. Ball State: 79.9%
Bowling Green’s MAC Championship Road Map
Bowling Green takes on Miami in a cross-state game for all the marbles. The winner of this game punches their ticket, but it’s also not quite that simple for the loser.
For Bowling Green, they can still be alive with a loss to Miami in a very specific scenario. If both Buffalo and Ohio take loses, Bowling Green is essentially off the hook with a loss and would still make it in. However, with a Buffalo win and an Ohio loss, Bowling Green is subject to a tiebreaking scenario.
After some fun finagling down the MAC tiebreaking scenarios, you’d have to come down to tiebreaker No. 5 to separate Bowling Green and Buffalo. In this instance, Ohio would be eliminated off this hypothetical loss to Ball State that makes this tie possible, given Bowling Green and Buffalo beat Ball State already this year.
Tiebreaker No. 5 sticks the MAC teams by their total opponent conference winning percentage. Before Week 14, Bowling Green holds a one-game advantage over Buffalo and their only two uncommon opponents would have to flip results for Bowling Green to lose out.
So, with a loss, the Falcons are rooting for Ball State to beat Miami and for Central Michigan to beat Northern Illinois to keep their lead over Buffalo.
Plainly — Bowling Green can make it by:
- Winning vs. Miami
- Losing to Miami + an Ohio loss + Buffalo loss
- Losing to Miami + an Ohio loss + Buffalo win + CMU win
Any other combination would see their exit from contention.
Bowling Green’s winning probability vs. Miami: 53.8%
Miami’s MAC Championship Road Map
Miami’s road map is also pretty easy, except if they lose. Miami has to win against Bowling Green and they’re in. With a loss, however, they’re not all the way out of it just like the Falcons aren’t out with a loss.
If Miami were to lose, they could still be in with Ohio and Buffalo losing as the RedHawks have the tiebreaker between Ohio, and Buffalo would be mathematically eliminated. In the event of a three-way tie between Ohio, Buffalo, and Miami, however, it would be Buffalo that moves on, not either of the Ohio schools.
Miami’s winning probability vs. Bowling Green: 46.2%
Buffalo’s MAC Championship Road Map
Okay, to the chaos we go. Remember, the best way forward (and the simplest explanation I can muster) is above. But here’s more on that scenario.
All of the following has to happen for Buffalo to make the MAC Championship Game:
- Buffalo beats Kent State on Tuesday
- Ohio loses to Ball State on Friday
- Miami beats Bowling Green on Friday
- Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan on Saturday
- Northern Illinois beats Central Michigan on Saturday
The reason we’re bringing in teams not in play for the championship game is because of the tiebreaking scenario that gets the Bulls in there.
So if Buffalo wins, Ohio loses, and Miami beats Bowling Green, that sets up the three-way tiebreaker scenario between Ohio, Bowling Green, and Buffalo.
In that, there are multiple ways to break the tie, but in order, you don’t find a differentiation until you get to common opponents. In these three teams, they have common opponents of Akron, Ball State, Kent State, and Toledo.
And in this scenario, Ohio will have just lost to Ball State, whereas Bowling Green and Buffalo won, thus moving those two down the tiebreaking scenarios. Tiebreaker No. 5 in the MAC scenarios states that it would come down to each team’s combined conference opponent winning percentage in MAC play.
The two teams Bowling Green and Buffalo don’t have in common are Eastern Michigan (Buffalo) and Central Michigan (Bowling Green). Prior to the start of Week 14, Bowling Green’s opponent winning percentage ranks one game higher than Buffalo’s percentage.
Therefore, they’d need a two-game swap and Buffalo’s uncommon opponent — Eastern Michigan — would have to win while Bowling Green’s uncommon opponent — Central Michigan — would have to lose.
It’s a lot for Buffalo to have happen, but as we’ve seen over the years, if there’s chance, crazier things have happened.
- Buffalo beats Kent State on Tuesday
Probability: 87.4% - Ohio loses to Ball State on Friday
Probability: 20.1% - Miami beats Bowling Green on Friday
Probability: 46.2% - Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan on Saturday
Probability: 33.1% - Northern Illinois beats Central Michigan on Saturday
Probability: 65.1%
Given those probabilities, Buffalo has a 1.75% chance of making the MAC Championship Game. The sim numbers above simply don’t like Eastern Michigan winning too often at the same time as Northern Illinois.
But again, Buffalo fans, it’s possible.
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