The MAC Championship Game will be decided this weekend, it’s just a matter of whether that happens on Friday or Saturday. Between the Ohio Bobcats, Bowling Green Falcons, Miami RedHawks, and Buffalo Bulls, one way or another, the title game’s biggest contenders have everything to play for.
Buffalo took care of their part on Tuesday night, and now the Bulls await their fate at the hands of Miami, Ohio, and Bowling Green. Here’s how the MAC Championship Game Scenarios can unfold.
MAC Championship Game Odds
UPDATE: The data below was written prior to the Miami RedHawks and Ohio Bobcats punching their tickets to the MAC Championship Game. For full odds and a preview of the game, head to: MAC Championship Game Odds – Ohio Has the Advantage?
The Vegas lines are out:
- Bowling Green: +135
- Ohio: +180
- Miami-OH: +240
- Buffalo: +5000
As indicated, the road map for Buffalo is much more difficult than the three Ohio-based schools. Don’t believe the Vegas lines? Then, leave it to our Playoff Predictor to indicate just how difficult it is.
MAC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Ohio 44.28%
- Miami-OH 38.22%
- Bowling Green 17.48%
- Buffalo 0.12%
The numbers above are how many times each team made the MAC Championship Game and subsequently won the conference in the process. Buffalo made it on less than 100 of the 10,000 sims and won it even fewer times.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Here’s how each team could make it happen and what they need to have unfold their way in order to make to the MAC Championship.
MAC Championship Game Scenarios
To make this incredibly clear, let’s get this as short as possible. Here’s how each team can make the MAC Championship Game, but scroll down for the full explanation.
- Ohio: Win and in
- Bowling Green: Win and in
- Miami: Win and in
- Buffalo: Win (already happened), Miami win, Eastern Michigan win, Central Michigan loss
So that’s three play-in teams and one team — Buffalo — who needs absolute chaos to survive and advance. Let’s break them all down because there’s more for each team, especially with a loss.
Ohio’s MAC Championship Road Map
This one’s the simplest scenario of the group since Ohio operates outside the chaos at the top. If the Bobcats take care of business against Ball State on Friday afternoon, they secure their spot in the MAC Championship Game.
A loss doesn’t entirely eliminate Ohio, but the path forward gets murky. Their chances would hinge on tiebreakers involving nearly every team in the MAC, particularly Eastern and Central Michigan.
Bottom line: Ohio is essentially in a win-and-in situation, almost as much as they’re in a lose-and-out one. According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Bobcats still hold strong odds to emerge on top.
- Ohio’s winning probability vs. Ball State: 79.9%
Bowling Green’s MAC Championship Road Map
Bowling Green faces Miami in a high-stakes cross-state showdown, with the winner earning a ticket to the next stage. But for the loser, things get a little more complicated.
For Bowling Green, a loss doesn’t necessarily spell the end. In a very specific scenario, they could still advance. If both Buffalo and Ohio lose, Bowling Green would effectively dodge elimination and secure their spot despite the loss. However, if Buffalo wins and Ohio loses, Bowling Green would find themselves in a tiebreaker situation.
Diving into the MAC’s tiebreaking rules, things get intricate. In this hypothetical scenario, where Ohio loses to Ball State to create the tie, Ohio would be knocked out, as both Bowling Green and Buffalo have already defeated Ball State this season. To separate Bowling Green and Buffalo, the MAC would move to tiebreaker No. 5: total opponent conference winning percentage.
Heading into Week 14, Bowling Green has a one-game edge over Buffalo in this category. For Buffalo to leapfrog Bowling Green, results from their only two uncommon opponents would have to flip.
In the event of a loss, the Falcons will be rooting for Ball State to take down Miami and for Central Michigan to defeat Northern Illinois, ensuring their lead over Buffalo remains intact.
Plainly — Bowling Green can make it by:
- Winning vs. Miami
- Losing to Miami + an Ohio loss + Buffalo loss
- Losing to Miami + an Ohio loss + Buffalo win + CMU win
Any other combination would see their exit from contention.
Bowling Green’s winning probability vs. Miami: 53.8%
Miami’s MAC Championship Road Map
Miami’s path is straightforward—win against Bowling Green, and they’re in. But if they lose, things get a bit more complicated. Just like the Falcons wouldn’t be completely out with a loss, neither would the RedHawks.
If Miami falls short, they could still secure a spot if both Ohio and Buffalo lose. Miami holds the tiebreaker over Ohio, and Buffalo would be mathematically eliminated. However, if a three-way tie forms between Ohio, Buffalo, and Miami, it’s Buffalo, not either of the Ohio schools, that would advance.
Miami’s winning probability vs. Bowling Green: 46.2%
Buffalo’s MAC Championship Road Map
Okay, to the chaos we go. Remember, the best way forward (and the simplest explanation I can muster) is above. But here’s more on that scenario.
All of the following has to happen for Buffalo to make the MAC Championship Game:
- Buffalo beats Kent State on Tuesday — which they’ve now done, so next up is:
- Ohio loses to Ball State on Friday
- Miami beats Bowling Green on Friday
- Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan on Saturday
- Northern Illinois beats Central Michigan on Saturday
The reason we’re discussing teams not directly in contention for the championship game is the tiebreaking scenario that could pave the way for the Bulls to get in.
If Buffalo wins, Ohio loses, and Miami beats Bowling Green, it triggers a three-way tiebreaker involving Ohio, Bowling Green, and Buffalo.
In this situation, there are several steps to breaking the tie, but differentiation doesn’t occur until you reach the common-opponent criterion. For these three teams, the common opponents are Akron, Ball State, Kent State, and Toledo.
Here’s where it gets interesting: in this scenario, Ohio will have just lost to Ball State, while Bowling Green and Buffalo secured wins. This pushes Ohio out of contention in the tiebreaker. The MAC’s fifth tiebreaker rule then determines the outcome based on each team’s combined conference opponent winning percentage in MAC play.
The teams’ uncommon opponents — Eastern Michigan (Buffalo) and Central Michigan (Bowling Green) — play a pivotal role. Heading into Week 14, Bowling Green’s opponent winning percentage is slightly higher than Buffalo’s.
For Buffalo to advance, two things must happen: Eastern Michigan (Buffalo’s uncommon opponent) needs to win, and Central Michigan (Bowling Green’s uncommon opponent) needs to lose.
It’s a long shot, but as we’ve seen time and time again in college football, when there’s even a sliver of a chance, crazier outcomes have come to pass.
- Buffalo beats Kent State on Tuesday
Probability: 87.4% (DONE) - Ohio loses to Ball State on Friday
Probability: 20.1% - Miami beats Bowling Green on Friday
Probability: 46.2% - Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan on Saturday
Probability: 33.1% - Northern Illinois beats Central Michigan on Saturday
Probability: 65.1%
Given those probabilities, Buffalo has a 2.01% chance of making the MAC Championship Game. The sim numbers above simply don’t like Ohio dropping a game at home to Ball State on Friday afternoon.
But again, Buffalo fans, it’s possible.
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