Hands up if you had the LSU Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies leading the way as the only teams with an unblemished SEC record in Week 9 of the 2024 college football season.
The ever-blossoming rivalry contains real meaning this week as the two clash with significant conference and playoff consequences at play. Where do we lean in this SEC clash? Find out in this LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All LSU vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -1.5 - Spread
Texas A&M -2.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -135, LSU +114 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
While there’s plenty of focus on the return of the Lone State State rivalry with the Texas Longhorns, Texas A&M and LSU have formed one of the greatest SEC rivalries, which will be renewed on Saturday night. After a comfortable win a year ago, LSU carries a 36-23-3 winning record into the Week 9 clash, but can they continue that success in a pivotal matchup?
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Aggies started as a three-point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, and by midweek, that has dropped by half a point. There’s a strong chance that the oddsmakers and CFN FPM will align by kickoff. LSU covered the only other time they were considered an underdog this fall, while Texas A&M is 2-1 covering the spread when favored by a field goal or less.
LSU’s Winning Probability
The Tigers have a 47.2% chance to win the game, per CFN FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 1.5 points in the Aggies’ favor. This game represents LSU’s toughest challenge for the rest of the year, followed closely by a showdown with Alabama in Death Valley.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Texas A&M: 47.2%
- vs. Alabama: 53.4%
- at Florida: 79.6%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.8%
- vs. Oklahoma: 88.6%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Aggies have a 52.8% chance of winning the game. This clash represents Texas A&M’s second-toughest challenge of the year; if they beat LSU on Saturday, the Aggies will likely go into the finale against Texas with one loss.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. LSU: 52.8%
- at South Carolina: 75.1%
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 86.8%
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Prediction for LSU vs. Texas A&M
Typically, winning close games is more luck than coaching skill, but Brian Kelly and Elko probably don’t believe that. After all, they’re among the game’s elite in one-score winning percentage.
That means Saturday’s game in College Station could come down to the wire, and it’s likely to be electric as each team has hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff.
The winning team will be in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth and in the SEC title race, as the Georgia Bulldogs’ win over the Texas Longhorns has made these the only two undefeated teams in SEC play.
It seems that offensive line play has been a struggle across the SEC this year, but these teams might have the best units, even if they’ve not played like it at times.
That means the key is going to be pressure. Garrett Nussmeier has put the ball in harm’s way when pressured, while Conner Weigman has found tough sledding when defenders are closing in. While neither quarterback has been pressured all that often, they’ve struggled a bit when rushed.
However, only one team has the defensive front to cause the offense issues, as Texas A&M’s front seven has been nasty in recent weeks. If Nic Scourton can beat one of LSU’s phenomenal offensive tackles a few times, Nussmeier could crack under the pressure
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That might be the difference in an otherwise tight game. The combination of the Texas A&M front and the 12th Man might be too much to overcome for LSU. The Aggies will aim to control the clock and slow the game, leading to a game that goes slightly under its projected total.
Give me the Elko’s men by a touchdown.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, LSU 20
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