Who had the LSU Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies as the last two teams with perfect SEC records heading into Week 9 of the 2024 college football season?
This budding rivalry takes on even greater significance this week, with major conference and playoff stakes on the line as the two teams face off. Which side are we backing in this pivotal SEC showdown? Dive into our LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction to find out.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All LSU vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -1.5 - Spread
Texas A&M -1 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -115, LSU -105 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
While there’s plenty of focus on the return of the Lone State State rivalry with the Texas Longhorns, Texas A&M and LSU have formed one of the greatest SEC rivalries, which will be renewed on Saturday night. After a comfortable win a year ago, LSU carries a 36-23-3 winning record into the Week 9 clash, but can they continue that success in a pivotal matchup?
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Aggies started as a three-point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, and by midweek, that has dropped to a single point. LSU covered the only other time they were considered an underdog this fall, while Texas A&M is 2-1 covering the spread when favored by a field goal or less.
LSU’s Winning Probability
The Tigers have a 47.2% chance to win the game, per CFN FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 1.5 points in the Aggies’ favor. This game represents LSU’s toughest challenge for the rest of the year, followed closely by a showdown with Alabama in Death Valley.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Texas A&M: 47.2%
- vs. Alabama: 53.4%
- at Florida: 79.6%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.8%
- vs. Oklahoma: 88.6%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Aggies have a 52.8% chance of winning the game. This clash represents Texas A&M’s second-toughest challenge of the year; if they beat LSU on Saturday, the Aggies will likely go into the finale against Texas with one loss.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. LSU: 52.8%
- at South Carolina: 75.1%
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 86.8%
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Prediction for LSU vs. Texas A&M
Winning close games often comes down to luck more than coaching skill, but Brian Kelly and Elko might see it differently. Both are among the best in the game when it comes to one-score victories.
That sets the stage for a thrilling showdown on Saturday in College Station, with each team eyeing a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. The winner will take control of the playoff race and gain a crucial edge in the SEC title chase, especially after the Georgia Bulldogs’ win over Texas left these two as the only undefeated teams in SEC play.
Offensive line play has been shaky across the SEC this season, but these teams boast some of the better units—though they haven’t always shown it.
This matchup may hinge on pressure. Garrett Nussmeier has been prone to mistakes under pressure, while Conner Weigman has struggled when the pocket collapses. While neither has faced heavy pressure often, both have had their moments of difficulty when rushed.
Only one team has the defensive front capable of disrupting the opposing offense: Texas A&M’s front seven has been dominant recently. If Nic Scourton can win some battles against LSU’s standout tackles, it could be enough to rattle Nussmeier.
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In what should be a tight contest, the Aggies’ defensive strength and the energy of the 12th Man might give them the edge. Look for Texas A&M to control the clock and keep the game’s pace slow, leading to a contest that stays just under its projected total.
I’m backing Elko’s squad to win by a touchdown.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, LSU 20
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