Who would have predicted that the LSU Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies would be the last two teams with perfect SEC records heading into Week 9 of the 2024 college football season?
This emerging rivalry carries even more weight this week, with significant conference and playoff implications at stake as the two teams clash. Who are we backing in this crucial SEC matchup? Check out our LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction to find out.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All LSU vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -1.5 - Spread
Texas A&M -1 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -115, LSU -105 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
While much attention is on the return of the Lone Star State rivalry with the Texas Longhorns, Texas A&M and LSU have quietly developed one of the SEC’s most compelling rivalries, set to be renewed on Saturday night. After a dominant win last year, LSU enters the Week 9 showdown with a 36-23-3 all-time record, but can they maintain their momentum in this crucial matchup?
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Aggies opened as three-point favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, but by midweek, the line had tightened to just a single point. LSU covered the spread the only other time they were underdogs this season, while Texas A&M holds a 2-1 record against the spread when favored by a field goal or less.
LSU’s Winning Probability
The Tigers have a 47.2% chance to win the game, per CFN FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 1.5 points in the Aggies’ favor. This game represents LSU’s toughest challenge for the rest of the year, followed closely by a showdown with Alabama in Death Valley.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Texas A&M: 47.2%
- vs. Alabama: 53.4%
- at Florida: 79.6%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.8%
- vs. Oklahoma: 88.6%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Aggies have a 52.8% chance of winning the game. This clash represents Texas A&M’s second-toughest challenge of the year; if they beat LSU on Saturday, the Aggies will likely go into the finale against Texas with one loss.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. LSU: 52.8%
- at South Carolina: 75.1%
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 86.8%
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Prediction for LSU vs. Texas A&M
Winning close games often comes down to luck more than coaching prowess, but Brian Kelly and Mike Elko might beg to differ. Both are masters of the one-score victory.
This sets the stage for a thrilling clash on Saturday in College Station, with each team aiming for a potential College Football Playoff spot. The winner will seize control of the playoff race and gain a crucial edge in the SEC title chase, especially after Georgia’s win over Texas left these two as the last remaining undefeated teams in SEC play.
Offensive line play has been inconsistent across the SEC this season, but these teams feature some of the stronger units—though not always consistently showing it.
This matchup may come down to who can handle the pressure. Garrett Nussmeier has struggled with mistakes under duress, while Conner Weigman has had his own challenges when the pocket collapses. Though neither has faced constant pressure, both have shown vulnerabilities when rushed.
Only one team has a defensive front capable of disrupting the other’s offense: Texas A&M’s front seven has been a force lately. If Nic Scourton can win some battles against LSU’s standout tackles, it could be enough to throw Nussmeier off his game.
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In what promises to be a tight battle, the Aggies’ defensive strength and the energy of the 12th Man could provide the edge. Expect Texas A&M to control the clock and dictate a slower pace, keeping the score just under the projected total.
I’m backing Elko’s squad to come out on top by a touchdown.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, LSU 20
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