The Louisville Cardinals had high expectations for this season, but they’ve faded down the stretch and need a win to salvage what was once a prominent season. The Kentucky Wildcats whiffed on a transfer portal quarterback and fought injuries all season.
With one game left in the regular season, Kentucky coach Mark Stoops has thrown caution to the wind by starting true freshman Cutter Boley against the Cardinals. But is Jeff Brohm the one feeling the heat? Find out our thoughts in this Louisville vs. Kentucky prediction.
Louisville vs. Kentucky Betting Preview
All Louisville vs. Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisville -6 - Spread
Louisville -3.5 - Moneyline
Louisville -170, Kentucky +142 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Kroger Field | Lexington, KN - Predicted Weather at Kick
31 degrees, sunny, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Kentucky fans realized weeks ago that this was a lost season. The main things now are finding a quarterback for next season and figuring out if Mark Stoops is the coach of the future.
Louisville’s situation is different. Just two weeks ago, the Cardinals were in the top 25 before one of the most embarrassing losses of the season to the Stanford Cardinal. Now, the program is desperate to finish the year with a win over an underwhelming rival.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Louisville is just a 3.5-point road favorite. With a total of 49 points, Vegas expects a low-scoring game between two solid defenses. The implied final score is close to 26-23 in favor of the Cardinals.
Louisville’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM has the Cardinals as six-point favorites with a winning probability of 65.7%. If Louisville can win, they’d finish the year 8-4, but a loss would mean two losses out of three to end the year.
- at Kentucky: 65.7%
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
Not much has gone right for Kentucky this season, but a win over their ACC rivals would go a long way toward building positive momentum heading into the offseason. According to our metric, Kentucky has a 34.3% chance of winning at home.
- vs. Louisville: 34.3%
Prediction for Louisville vs. Kentucky
Maybe I have the wrong read here, but in conversations I’ve had with fans of both teams, there seems to be more anxiety on the side of the 7-4 Cardinals than the 4-7 Wildcats. It could simply be that the Kentucky fans in my life are excited about basketball season, but there seems to be a bit of peace about this lost season.
On the flip side, the Louisville fans I know had lofty goals for the season, and it doesn’t look like the Cardinals will accomplish any of them. Louisville had a preseason win total of 8.5 and is guaranteed to go under that number, even with a win on Saturday.
Whatever the reason, I’m hearing more angst from Cardinals fans who are frustrated with a lack of progress under head coach Brohm.
If the Cardinals lose on Saturday, expect those whispers of discontent to become amplified cries.
As for the product on the field, Kentucky announced that Brock Vandagriff has finally been relieved of his starting job after being benched in multiple starts this season.
The Wildcats will roll with true freshman Boley, who went to high school just down the road from Kroger Field. The Wildcats hope he can provide a spark that excites the fanbase heading into the offseason.
If he plays well in a win, the imminent transfer portal window becomes more intriguing for a fanbase looking for offseason excitement.
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Louisville just hasn’t been consistent enough this season, even on a week-to-week basis. The Cardinals rolled a Clemson Tigers team knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff, then suffered an embarrassing loss the following week against a three-win Stanford team just one week later.
So, I wouldn’t put it past the Cardinals to lose to their rival to extend a five-game Governor’s Cup losing streak. But if Louisville plays close to their potential, a solid running game and explosive passing attack should be enough to put this out of reach.
Unless Boley unlocks something that Vandagriff hasn’t been able to show in the passing game, the Wildcats’ offense just doesn’t have enough firepower to win on Saturday.
Take the Cardinals, but also the under on a cold day with two offenses that could struggle.
Prediction: Louisville 26, Kentucky 20
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