The Clemson Tigers seemed adrift after Week 1, as headlines buzzed with questions about Dabo Swinney’s stance on the transfer portal.
However, with six straight double-digit victories, the Tigers are back on track and positioned for another run at the ACC Championship. Can a streaky Louisville Cardinals squad derail their momentum? Here’s our take on the spread and total for this Louisville vs. Clemson prediction.
Louisville vs. Clemson Betting Preview
All Louisville vs. Clemson odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Clemson -11 - Spread
Clemson -10 - Moneyline
Clemson -375, Louisville +295 - Over/Under
62 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Memorial Stadium | Clemson, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
64 degrees, partly cloudy, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
These teams have had far different journeys up to this point in the year.
After Clemson endured a Georgia beatdown in Week 1, the Tigers easily dispatched six straight inferior opponents. Louisville, meanwhile, has taken care of some ACC bottom-feeders but is 0-3 against the upper echelon of its schedule, losing to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami — ironically teams that Clemson avoided on its schedule this year.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Tigers are currently 10.5-point home favorites. The total of 61 points is indicative of the strength of each offense, and the combination of a higher total and slightly wider spread suggests oddsmakers expect Clemson’s offense to have an excellent game. Vegas implies a final score close to 36-25 in favor of the Tigers.
Louisville’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is in line with the sportsbooks. The Cardinals are moderate underdogs on the road, per the metric, with an implied spread of just under 11 points and a winning probability of 20.4%. The metric makes them heavy favorites next week before two closer games to end the year.
- at Clemson: 20.4%
- at Stanford: 77.4%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 46.2%
- at Kentucky: 57.4%
Clemson’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Clemson a 79.6% chance to win and has the Tigers as moderate to heavy favorites in all five remaining games. FPM thinks Clemson has about a 23% chance of winning out this year.
- vs. Louisville: 79.6%
- at Virginia Tech: 66.9%
- at Pittsburgh: 53.4%
- vs. The Citadel: 99.9%
- vs. South Carolina: 82.6%
Prediction for Louisville vs. Clemson
Clemson has yet to find itself in a one-score game this season. In fact, the Tigers have only had one two-score contest all year—a comfortable 16-point win over Florida State that was never truly in question.
Louisville, on the other hand, seems to thrive on the drama of close games. The Cardinals are 2-3 in their last five, with each of those games finishing within a tight margin of four to seven points.
Which raises the question: Can Louisville keep things close in Death Valley?
Tyler Shough has been steady for the Cardinals, and I believe he and Louisville’s receivers have what it takes to challenge Clemson’s secondary—as long as their offensive line can hold up. That’s a big “if,” with Clemson boasting another formidable defensive front.
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Ultimately, the game’s outcome hinges on whether Louisville’s line can create enough room to run and give Shough the time he needs. If they can, the Cardinals have a shot at putting up points. Clemson’s offense has hit its stride but can still stall out when starting deep in its own territory.
Even so, the Tigers are just too deep and too talented to drop this one at home. While the Cardinals might keep it close for much of the game, I expect Clemson’s pass rush to eventually disrupt Jeff Brohm’s offense.
Louisville will have its moments, but consistency may elude them as Clemson pulls away late and shuts them down in the second half.
Prediction: Clemson 34, Louisville 20
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