The Clemson Tigers looked lost after Week 1, with questions about Dabo Swinney’s anti-transfer portal process dominating headlines.
But after six consecutive double-digit wins, the Tigers are in prime position to reach the ACC Championship yet again. Can a streaky Louisville Cardinals team stop them in their tracks? Find out our thoughts on the spread and total in this Louisville vs. Clemson prediction.
Louisville vs. Clemson Betting Preview
All Louisville vs. Clemson odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Clemson -11 - Spread
Clemson -10.5 - Moneyline
Clemson -425, Louisville +330 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Memorial Stadium | Clemson, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
64 degrees, partly cloudy, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
These teams have had far different journeys up to this point in the year.
After Clemson endured a Georgia beatdown in Week 1, the Tigers easily dispatched six straight inferior opponents. Louisville, meanwhile, has taken care of some ACC bottom-feeders but is 0-3 against the upper echelon of its schedule, losing to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami — ironically teams that Clemson avoided on its schedule this year.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Tigers are currently 10.5-point home favorites. The total of 61 points is indicative of the strength of each offense, and the combination of a higher total and slightly wider spread suggests oddsmakers expect Clemson’s offense to have an excellent game. Vegas implies a final score close to 36-25 in favor of the Tigers.
Louisville’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is in line with the sportsbooks. The Cardinals are moderate underdogs on the road, per the metric, with an implied spread of just under 11 points and a winning probability of 20.4%. The metric makes them heavy favorites next week before two closer games to end the year.
- at Clemson: 20.4%
- at Stanford: 77.4%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 46.2%
- at Kentucky: 57.4%
Clemson’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Clemson a 79.6% chance to win and has the Tigers as moderate to heavy favorites in all five remaining games. FPM thinks Clemson has about a 23% chance of winning out this year.
- vs. Louisville: 79.6%
- at Virginia Tech: 66.9%
- at Pittsburgh: 53.4%
- vs. The Citadel: 99.9%
- vs. South Carolina: 82.6%
Prediction for Louisville vs. Clemson
Clemson has yet to play a one-score game in 2024. In fact, the Tigers have only played one two-score game all season, a 16-point win over Florida State that was never in doubt.
That contrasts with Louisville’s philosophy of keeping nearly every game close. The Cardinals are 2-3 in their last five, with all of those games finishing with a margin of between four and seven points.
So that begs the question: Can Louisville keep it close in Clemson?
Tyler Shough has been just fine for the Cardinals, but I think he and the Louisville receivers can stress Clemson’s back seven, so as long as the offensive line holds its own. That’s less certain, as Clemson has another excellent defensive front.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
That’s where this is won or lost. If the Cardinals can find some running room and give Shough time, Louisville will put up some points. Clemson’s offense has finally reached its potential but can still struggle occasionally when given long fields.
That being said, the Tigers are too deep and too talented to lose at home right now. It should be close most of the game, but I think Clemson’s pass rush disrupts some of what Jeff Brohm’s squad wants to do offensively.
They’ll have their moments, but the Cardinals’ offense won’t be consistent enough to keep pace. Expect the Tigers to pull away late and shut down Louisville’s offense in the second half.
Prediction: Clemson 34, Louisville 20
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.