It’s a top-25 matchup in South Bend as Louisville heads to Notre Dame for a big-time matchup with potential postseason implications in Week 5. Are the Cardinals for real and which Irish team will fans see on Saturday?
The Louisville vs. Notre Dame prediction gives a clear indication of which side to back.
Louisville vs Notre Dame Betting Preview
All Louisville vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -5.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -6.5 - Moneyline
Louisville +190, Notre Dame -230 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Notre Dame Stadium | South Bend, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, partly cloudy - How To Watch
Peacock
Notre Dame opened as a nearly double-digit favorite when this line opened at -9.5. But that number has fallen, crossing a few key numbers when it got to -6.5, but has settled back at -7. The total has seen minimal movement as it opened at 48.5 and now sits at 46.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Notre Dame comes into this matchup 2-2 against the spread, failing to cover -27.5 last week against Miami-Ohio and suffering an embarrassing home loss to Northern Illinois as -28 favorites.
Lousiville enters this marquee showdown 3-0 against the spread, with two of their three games in 2024 going over the total.
Louisville Remaining Winning Probabilities
As good as Louisville has been to start the year, the real tests for the Cardinals were always set to come against Notre Dame and the perennial ACC favorites: Miami and Clemson.
As such, we can take a look at the remaining winning probability for each of Louisville’s remaining opponents:
- SMU 75.5%
- Virginia 65.1%
- Miami (FL) 38.1%
- Boston College 53.8%
- Clemson 35.4%
- Stanford 71.6%
- Pittsburgh 65.7%
- Kentucky 61.1%
These numbers come from CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and our proprietary Strength of Schedule. It should be noted, CFN’s FPM gives Louisville a 34.9% chance to win their game against Notre Dame, their lowest probability remaining on their schedule.
Notre Dame Remaining Winning Probabilities
The Fighting Irish have the benefit of playing the majority of their schedule at home or neutral sites from here on out. They see those benefits as such and should be favored in just about every remaining contest.
- Stanford 87.2%
- Georgia Tech 74.2%
- Navy 91.3%
- Florida State 83.0%
- Virginia 83.0%
- Army 92.3%
- @ USC 47.5%
Even their game against USC is so far out that it’s hard to project and could certainly move in their favor before we get to the end of the season.
CFN’s Strength of Schedule has ND with a tough road ahead, but it certainly has seen a downward turn in overall strength due to the inefficiencies and lack of success from Florida State, Georgia Tech as of late, and Virginia.
Prediction for Lousiville vs. Notre Dame
For me, the key to this game lies in the trenches. It’s all about Louisville’s ability to withstand a strong Notre Dame defensive front and pass rush. If Shough has time to operate, he’s proven he can pick apart defenses. So, protecting him will be crucial if Louisville wants to come out on top Saturday.
On the flip side, Notre Dame’s passing attack hasn’t posed much of a threat. While they piled up 270 rushing yards against Miami last week, they’ll need more firepower to keep pace with Louisville’s offense.
Louisville’s defense, though untested against elite competition, ranks 28th nationally against the run in 2024. Last week, they limited a solid Georgia Tech ground game to under 100 rushing yards.
I don’t love this matchup for Notre Dame. Could they control the line of scrimmage, pound the ball on the ground, and keep Shough under pressure while dominating time of possession? It’s certainly possible.
But I believe Louisville will eventually figure out how to move the ball on the Irish and find the end zone, forcing Leonard and Notre Dame’s offense to make plays through the air. So far in 2024, they haven’t shown the consistency to do that.
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This matchup has the potential to mirror last year’s meeting. It was a tight defensive contest early, tied 7-7 at halftime, before Louisville broke out in the second half, rushing for 195 yards and scoring 26 second-half points en route to a 33-20 victory.
I think Louisville pulls off the upset again.
Prediction: Louisville 23, Notre Dame 17
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