I usually find value in the Group of Five vs. Middling Power Four matchups, but this year’s New Mexico Bowl brings a few extra wrinkles.
The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns are banged up—can the TCU Horned Frogs take advantage? Let’s dive into our Louisiana vs. TCU prediction.
Louisiana vs. TCU New Mexico Bowl Betting Preview
All Louisiana vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
TCU -7.5 - Spread
TCU -9 - Moneyline
TCU -325, Louisiana +260 - Over/Under
60.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 28, 2:15 p.m. ET - Location
University Stadium | Albuquerque, MA - How To Watch
ESPN
While many teams this bowl season are affected by the transfer portal, the Ragin’ Cajuns have a case of the old-fashioned injury bug.
Starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge went down injured, so Chandler Fields stepped in before being carted off in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Wooldridge is questionable, and if he can’t go, they’ll be down to their third-stringer. Elsewhere, the Ragin’ Cajuns are missing multiple starting receivers and tight ends.
The line on this game has moved somewhat significantly. After starting at TCU -9.5, the line has moved to its current number of -13. The total has moved down as well, as it’s gone from 61.5 to 58.
Louisiana’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Ragin’ Cajuns than Vegas, making Louisiana a 7.5-point underdog. That translates to a winning probability of 28.4%.
- vs. TCU: 28.4%
TCU’s Winning Probability
TCU is relatively unaffected by the transfer portal and could get star receiver Jack Bech back from injury. CFN’s FPM gives the Frogs a 71.6% chance to win.
- vs. Louisiana: 71.6%
Prediction for Louisiana vs. TCU
At full strength, I’d pick the Ragin’ Cajuns outright, but mounting injuries at key positions make that tough to justify.
The quarterback room has been decimated, and even if Wooldridge suits up, he’s unlikely to be anywhere near 100%. Adding to the problem, injuries and opt-outs at nearly all skill positions leave serious questions about where Louisiana’s offense will come from.
TCU’s defense, especially against the run and the deep pass, has struggled mightily this season. But the Frogs won’t have to contend with Louisiana’s usual playmakers—they’re facing an already thin Group of Five team relying on multiple third-string options.
On the other hand, TCU’s offense hasn’t been the issue. Ranked 23rd nationally in yards per play, they’ve scored 30 points in nine of 12 games this season. And recently, their defense has started to show signs of life.
Since losing a shootout to Baylor on Nov. 2, TCU’s defense has allowed just 17 points per game over their final three contests.
Granted, those offenses weren’t elite, but they were solid and had their full arsenal of skill players available.
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Unfortunately, I think this one has blowout potential. But unlike some other lopsided games this bowl season, this won’t be about transfer portal departures, lack of effort, or a team treating the game like a vacation. Louisiana just doesn’t have the depth or firepower to withstand the wave of injuries.
If Wooldridge can play, things get more interesting. The Ragin’ Cajuns still have their top two running backs and two of their five best receivers available. So, while the cupboard isn’t bare, it’s starting to look pretty sparse.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on Wooldridge’s final status. If he’s healthy, Louisiana could generate enough in the passing game to create space for Bill Davis on the ground. I wouldn’t pick them to win, but I’d feel a lot better about their chances to cover.
For now, though, I have to go with what we know. Based on the current state of things and Wooldridge’s injury history, I’m taking the Frogs—and I’m taking them big.
Prediction: TCU 34, Louisiana 16
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