The Tuesday night spotlight on Conference USA wraps up in Week 10 with an exciting matchup between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and Sam Houston Bearkats. Can the underdog Bearkats pull off an upset in Huntsville?
Our Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston preview covers everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to both teams’ outlooks as they head into the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Betting Preview
All Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Sam Houston -5 - Spread
Sam Houston -10 - Moneyline
Sam Houston -395, Louisiana Tech +310 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium | Huntsville, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, mainly clear, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Sam Houston kicked off its relevance as an FBS outfit when it went on the road and beat the Bulldogs handsomely last season. It was their first FBS win and their first all-time over Louisiana Tech. Much has changed since then, and although the Bearkats still trail their Tuesday night opponent in the all-time head-to-head, they enter the game as a significant favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Although our Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston prediction explains why the Bearkats have the advantage here, securing a win doesn’t necessarily translate to covering the spread. In fact, they have failed to cover the last two games as a favorite. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech covered the only time they’ve been an underdog this season.
Louisiana Tech’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Louisiana Tech has a 36.4% chance of winning against Sam Houston on Tuesday night. Our metric predicted the win over UTEP and provided a spread closer to the four-point win than the official DraftKings Sportsbook line.
- at Sam Houston: 36.4%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 36.9%
- at Western Kentucky: 21.9%
- vs. Arkansas: 12.8%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 75.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Louisiana Tech would end the season with a 4-8 record, missing bowl eligibility for the fourth consecutive season. While being a one-win improvement against their 2023 record, failing to win any of their final five games could be a death knoll for head coach Sonny Cumbie.
Sam Houston’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Sam Houston has a 63.6% chance of beating Louisiana Tech on Tuesday night. Our metric was a half-point out of predicting the margin of victory against the FIU Panthers last week compared to the official line, which was two points off.
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 63.6%
- at Kennesaw State: 76.6%
- at Jacksonville State: 36.9%
- vs. Liberty: 45.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Sam Houston would end the year with an 8-4 record. The program has already secured bowl eligibility, showcasing a dramatic improvement in their second year at the FBS level. KC Keeler’s team won just three games in the whole of the 2023 campaign.
Prediction for Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston
Sam Houston clinched bowl eligibility in their last game, despite losing starting quarterback Hunter Watson to injury, bringing a 6-2 record into their Tuesday night matchup with the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech eked out a win over UTEP, staying one game ahead in a tightly contested race for CUSA’s “best of the rest.”
Will the Bulldogs catch up to the Bearkats with a Tuesday night victory, or can Sam Houston keep their CUSA title game hopes alive by defeating Louisiana Tech? Who holds the edge, and where will the pivotal battles unfold?
Just as in their recent matchup with FIU, Sam Houston’s chances depend heavily on the health of quarterback Watson. Before his injury in the game against Western Kentucky, the Bearkats had scored over 30 points in five of their first six games of the 2024 season. Without him, they’ve struggled, failing to surpass 20 points in his absence.
Watson’s dual-threat capability is critical to the Bearkats’ offense, with his ability to stretch the field vertically in the passing game and create challenges for defenses on the ground. He led the team in rushing before his injury, and his presence helped running backs Jeyvon Ducker and DJ McKinney flourish in the backfield.
Louisiana Tech, on the other hand, boasts one of CUSA’s top run defenses, allowing just 113.0 rushing yards per game, 3.23 yards per carry, and only eight rushing touchdowns all season. Playmakers like Kolbe Fields are skilled at tracking down the ball, but they’ll need to tighten up against Sam Houston after conceding three rushing scores to New Mexico State.
On offense, Evan Bullock has solidified his role as Louisiana Tech’s starting quarterback without throwing an interception.
The Bulldogs also feature talented players in Jimmy Holiday and Tru Edwards, though they could face challenges against a Bearkats defense that has been relentless in every phase of the game—a potential game-changer.
Prediction: Sam Houston 31, Louisiana Tech 21
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