The college football starting debuts for quarterbacks Brock Vandagriff and LaNorris Sellers couldn’t have gone differently in Week 1.
The Kentucky Wildcats struggled offensively for one series before pouring it on Southern Miss in a lightning-shortened 31-0 win. On the other side, the South Carolina Gamecocks got off to a perfect start, forcing an early turnover and cashing in, before struggling offensively against Old Dominion and barely squeaking out a 23-19 win, despite four takeaways and five sacks.
South Carolina vs. Kentucky Betting Preview
Can the Gamecocks play a more competent offensive game in Lexington, or will the Wildcats run away with it in this clash of SEC undefeated teams?
All South Carolina vs. Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 7.
- Spread
Kentucky -8.5 - Moneyline
Kentucky -340, South Carolina +270 - Over/Under
42 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kroger Field, Lexington, KY - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, 11 mph winds, sunny - How to Watch
FuboTV, ABC
This line ballooned since Kentucky opened as a 6.5-point favorite, mostly thanks to the public’s reaction to South Carolina’s close win over Old Dominion. Is there a betting advantage in this one after it moved to -10 and then back to -8.5 on Saturday?
The Kentucky-South Carolina series has been one of the weirder ones in recent memory. as the Gamecocks have won the last two meetings while scoring just 41 total points in the span. USC’s offense certainly didn’t look good in the opener, but is that something that can be corrected or something that will doom them against a good Wildcats defense?
Within the program, the Gamecocks have been extremely high on Sellers at quarterback. The expectation was that while he would have some freshman growing pains, he would have an electric season opener. That didn’t happen, as the receivers really struggled to get open, and Sellers often missed when they were.
Vandergriff’s overall stats were much better, but he struggled a bit in the opening moments against Southern Miss before pulling it together.
Both of these defenses represent a step up in competition for the offenses, so it will be crucial for the young quarterbacks to make some easy throws early to get in a rhythm.
Last week, Sellers didn’t do that. It’s almost as if South Carolina’s offensive staff showed too much confidence in Sellers, failing to give him some easy throws early and instead trying to push the ball down the field.
Both quarterbacks had average depth of targets over 12 yards. The question for both teams is whether the QBs will have time to do that again.
South Carolina’s pass-protection issues from last season seem to be lingering, but the Gamecocks have revamped their pass rush into a formidable group. Can the quarterbacks find success under pressure?
For the Gamecocks, the key will be getting their playmakers in space for Sellers to hit in stride, while the defense will look to get after Vandagriff, who was hardly ever pressured against Southern Miss.
On the other side, Kentucky will want to protect Vandagriff long enough to allow the talented receivers to attack a talented, but thin USC secondary.
Prediction for South Carolina vs. Kentucky
My prediction is going to be different than most others you’ll find on the internet. CFN’s Strength of Schedule model puts this line closer to the 2.5-3 point range in favor of Kentucky, much less than the 10 that the line has been bet to.
Shane Beamer’s teams have historically underwhelmed in Week 1 before going back to the drawing board prior to Week 2. Sellers will almost certainly be better than his 10-23 performance in Week 1, and the Gamecocks’ offense will likely average more than 3.5 sack-adjusted yards per rush.
It comes down to whether the defense can avoid the mental lapses and big plays on defense that marred what was a brilliant game up front. Expect Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard to get after Vandagriff and put him in an unfamiliar spot under pressure.
Ten seems like a lot to give the Gamecocks here, even if they struggled in Week 1. This game is almost always close and low scoring. I lean towards going under an already low total.
A lot has to go right for the Gamecocks after a lot went wrong last season, but Beamer has three wins as a 10-point underdog since 2021, the third-most in college football in that time.
Let’s make it a fourth.
Prediction: South Carolina 24, Kentucky 20
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