It’s been over seven decades since the Kentucky Wildcats and Texas Longhorns last faced off on the football field. That matchup, played on a September afternoon in 1951, ended with a razor-thin 7-6 victory for Texas—a result recorded in history but largely faded from memory.
Now, these two programs prepare to clash again, this time under the bright lights of DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. The stakes are higher, the spotlight brighter. For Kentucky (4-6, 1-6 SEC), it’s an opportunity to salvage a turbulent season and prove they can hang with one of college football’s powerhouses. For Texas (9-1, 5-1), sitting at No. 3 in the national rankings, it’s a crucial step in their quest for playoff greatness.
So, who comes out on top? Let’s dive into our Kentucky vs. Texas prediction for the answers.
Kentucky vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Kentucky vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -21.5 - Spread
Texas -20 - Moneyline
Texas -1450, Kentucky +850 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, partly cloudy, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The No. 3 ranked Longhorns opened as a full three-touchdown favorite at -21. Since then, that number has teetered between -21 and -19 and has now settled at -20.5. This number will likely see more movement before kickoff on Saturday afternoon.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
The total has been a bit quieter. It opened at 46.5 and has only seen a slight jump to 47. Those are the only two numbers the total has hit since the opening, and will likely end within a point of that in either direction on the kickoff.
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Wildcats have a 5.7% chance of defeating the Longhorns on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Kentucky will finish its 2024 campaign at a disappointing 4-8. That would be the program’s worst finish under head coach Mark Stoops since his inaugural season in Lexington — when the Wildcats finished 2-10 in 2013.
- at Texas: 5.7%
- vs. Louisville: 42.6%
Texas’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Texas has a 94.3% chance of defeating Kentucky at home on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Longhorns will finish 2024 at 11-1 and have a spot in the SEC title game in their first season as a member of the SEC.
This would be an excellent follow-up to its 2023 campaign when the Longhorns finished 12-2 and made it to the CFP semi-final. If they finish 11-1, Texas will have an excellent shot at earning a top-4 seed in the 12-team CFP, which comes with a first-round bye.
- vs. Kentucky: 94.3%
- at Texas A&M: 58.9%
Prediction for Kentucky vs. Texas
Texas heads into this matchup riding the momentum of three straight wins, capped off by a 20-10 victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville. Yet, despite the celebration, the Longhorns fell short of expectations, failing to cover as 12.5-point favorites. Their defense delivered, easily keeping the game under the total, but some lingering questions remain.
Quinn Ewers managed 176 yards and two touchdowns—efficient but far from dazzling. Since their humbling October 19 loss to Georgia, Texas has righted the ship, but with each week, the stakes continue to rise.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
On the other side, Kentucky’s season has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. Their gritty 13-12 loss to Georgia in mid-September showcased resilience, followed by a stunning 20-17 upset over then-No. 6 Ole Miss on the road.
However, consistency hasn’t been Kentucky’s strong suit. At their peak, they’ve proven capable of hanging with the best teams in the country. But in pivotal moments, they’ve too often faltered.
Saturday feels like the setup for a defensive showdown. Mark Stoops has a knack for preparing his team for big moments, often leading to physical, hard-fought battles. In the end, I expect Texas to emerge victorious, but don’t anticipate a blowout—this one stays competitive.
Prediction: Texas 27, Kentucky 13