It’s been over seven decades since the Kentucky Wildcats and Texas Longhorns last collided on the football field. That 1951 matchup, played on a crisp September afternoon, ended with a razor-thin 7-6 victory for Texas—a result etched in history but long faded from memory.
Now, these two programs are set to clash once more, this time under the dazzling lights of DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. The stakes couldn’t be higher, the spotlight couldn’t be brighter. For Kentucky (4-6, 1-6 SEC), it’s a chance to rewrite their season’s narrative, salvaging pride while proving they can stand toe-to-toe with one of college football’s titans. For Texas (9-1, 5-1), sitting at No. 3 in the national rankings, it’s a pivotal step on their quest for playoff glory.
So, who will rise to the occasion? Let’s break it all down in our bold Kentucky vs. Texas prediction.
Kentucky vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Kentucky vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -21.5 - Spread
Texas -18.5 - Moneyline
Texas -1200, Kentucky +750 - Over/Under
47 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, partly cloudy, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The No. 3 ranked Longhorns opened as a full three-touchdown favorite at -21. Since then, that number has teetered between -21 and -19 and has now settled at -20.5. This number will likely see more movement before kickoff on Saturday afternoon.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
The total has been a bit quieter. It opened at 46.5 and has only seen a slight jump to 47. Those are the only two numbers the total has hit since the opening, and will likely end within a point of that in either direction on the kickoff.
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Wildcats have a 5.7% chance of defeating the Longhorns on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Kentucky will finish its 2024 campaign at a disappointing 4-8. That would be the program’s worst finish under head coach Mark Stoops since his inaugural season in Lexington — when the Wildcats finished 2-10 in 2013.
- at Texas: 5.7%
- vs. Louisville: 42.6%
Texas’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Texas has a 94.3% chance of defeating Kentucky at home on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Longhorns will finish 2024 at 11-1 and have a spot in the SEC title game in their first season as a member of the SEC.
This would be an excellent follow-up to its 2023 campaign when the Longhorns finished 12-2 and made it to the CFP semi-final. If they finish 11-1, Texas will have an excellent shot at earning a top-4 seed in the 12-team CFP, which comes with a first-round bye.
- vs. Kentucky: 94.3%
- at Texas A&M: 58.9%
Prediction for Kentucky vs. Texas
Texas enters this matchup riding high on the momentum of three straight wins, capped by a gritty 20-10 victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville. Yet, despite the celebration, the Longhorns fell short of expectations, failing to cover as 12.5-point favorites. Their defense dominated, easily keeping the game under the total, but some critical questions linger.
Quinn Ewers delivered an efficient but unspectacular performance, throwing for 176 yards and two touchdowns. Since their humbling October 19 loss to Georgia, Texas has steadied the ship, but with every passing week, the pressure to perform only intensifies.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Meanwhile, Kentucky’s season has been nothing short of a wild ride. Their gritty 13-12 loss to Georgia in mid-September highlighted their toughness, followed by a shocking 20-17 upset over then-No. 6 Ole Miss on the road.
Consistency, however, has been Kentucky’s Achilles’ heel. At their best, they’ve shown they can go toe-to-toe with the nation’s elite, but in high-stakes moments, they’ve too often faltered.
Saturday feels like the perfect setup for a bruising defensive showdown. Mark Stoops has a proven ability to prepare his team for big moments, often resulting in physical, hard-fought battles. While I expect Texas to come out on top, don’t anticipate a runaway victory—this one has all the makings of a closely contested fight.
Prediction: Texas 27, Kentucky 13