All eyes turn to the Big 12 in Week 14, with conference championship spots hanging in the balance. While the Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears matchup might not dominate the headlines like some of the other games, it has all the makings of a thriller—with season-defining stakes for both teams.
Who comes out on top? Our Kansas vs. Baylor preview breaks down everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they gear up for the finale of an unforgettable 2024 college football season.
Kansas vs. Baylor Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Baylor -3.5 - Spread
Baylor -1 - Moneyline
Kansas -102, Baylor -118 - Over/Under
62 points - Game time
Saturday, Nov. 30 | Noon ET - Location
McLane Stadium | Waco, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, mostly cloudy, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN 2
Saturday is the 23rd all-time matchup between Kansas and Baylor, a tie in which the Bears have historically succeeded. Dave Aranda’s side has won 18 of 22 matchups and is currently on a 13-game winning streak over the Jayhawks.
However, bookmakers have gone against the grain of history, and Kansas is now favored by 1.5 points. All the money is being laid on the Jayhawks to get a road win and secure bowl eligibility after a 1-5 start to the 2024 season.
However, the College Football Playoff Football Meter metric suggests that this Week 14 matchup is too close to call, indicating that betting on the total points might be the better play.
Although the Jayhawks haven’t scored more than 14 points in head-to-head games since 2011, Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal have energized the offense and possess the capability for big plays that can match Baylor’s high-scoring power. The Bears have scored 38 points or more in four of their last five games, meaning there’s a strong possibility that this is a high-scoring affair.
Kansas’ Winning Probability
The CFN FPM pictures a close game in Waco between two evenly matched teams. Despite its late-season form, the metric has Kansas as the underdog, giving them a 41.1% chance to defeat the Bears.
- @ Baylor: 41.1%
Baylor’s Winning Probability
With the game expected to be close, the FPM has sided with the home team. Baylor has a 58.9% chance of defeating the Jayhawks in the regular-season finale, securing Aranda his second season with eight wins since he took charge in 2020.
- vs. Kansas: 58.9%
Prediction for Kansas vs. Baylor
All signs point to a nail-biter in Waco on Saturday afternoon, with everything to play for on both sides. While it’s a long shot, Baylor still has a mathematical chance at the Big 12 title game, remaining one of nine teams with a path to the conference championship.
On the other hand, Kansas has pulled off an impressive turnaround. Sitting at 5-6, the Jayhawks need a win to punch their ticket to a bowl game. They’ve been red-hot lately, riding a three-game win streak against ranked opponents, thanks largely to their dominant rushing attack.
This game will hinge on the performances of the two star running backs. Neal and Bryson Washington have been the engines driving their respective offenses.
For Baylor, the formula is simple: they’re undefeated in games where Washington eclipses 100 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Kansas has leaned on a rushing attack that averages an impressive 181.7 yards per game in 2024.
This clash of ground games could lead to a high-scoring affair, especially given both teams’ efficiency in the red zone. Kansas ranks seventh nationally with a 93.9% red-zone scoring rate, while Baylor isn’t far behind at 22nd, converting 76.7% of their chances.
Defensively, neither team has been stellar at stopping the run. Kansas allows an average of 147.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 61st nationally—just ahead of Baylor, which sits at 73rd with 155.4 yards allowed.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
The team that can establish the run and control the clock will likely hold the upper hand. Still, this game promises plenty of momentum shifts, with both teams boasting capable quarterbacks. Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson has hit his stride, while Kansas’ Daniels is rounding into form.
Don’t be surprised if the air attack becomes just as crucial as the ground game in this back-and-forth battle.
Prediction: Baylor 34, Kansas 30
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.