All eyes will be on the Big 12 in Week 14, with spots in the conference championship game to be decided. The Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears may not be grabbing the same headlines as other games in the conference, but it has the potential to be one of the most exciting, with season-defining implications for both schools.
Who will prevail? Our Kansas vs. Baylor prediction dives into all the details, from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final game of a remarkable 2024 college football campaign.
Kansas vs. Baylor Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Baylor -3.25 - Spread
Kansas -1.5 - Moneyline
Kansas -115, Baylor -105 - Over/Under
62 points - Game time
Saturday, Nov. 30 | Noon ET - Location
McLane Stadium | Waco, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, mostly cloudy, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN 2
Saturday is the 23rd all-time matchup between Kansas and Baylor, a tie in which the Bears have historically succeeded. Dave Aranda’s side has won 18 of 22 matchups and is currently on a 13-game winning streak over the Jayhawks.
However, bookmakers have gone against the grain of history, and Kansas is now favored by 1.5 points. All the money is being laid on the Jayhawks to get a road win and secure bowl eligibility after a 1-5 start to the 2024 season.
However, the College Football Playoff Football Meter metric suggests that this Week 14 matchup is too close to call, indicating that betting on the total points might be the better play.
Although the Jayhawks haven’t scored more than 14 points in head-to-head games since 2011, Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal have energized the offense and possess the capability for big plays that can match Baylor’s high-scoring power. The Bears have scored 38 points or more in four of their last five games, meaning there’s a strong possibility that this is a high-scoring affair.
Kansas’ Winning Probability
The CFN FPM pictures a close game in Waco between two evenly matched teams. Despite its late-season form, the metric has Kansas as the underdog, giving them a 41.1% chance to defeat the Bears.
- @ Baylor: 41.1%
Baylor’s Winning Probability
With the game expected to be close, the FPM has sided with the home team. Baylor has a 58.9% chance of defeating the Jayhawks in the regular-season finale, securing Aranda his second season with eight wins since he took charge in 2020.
- vs. Kansas: 58.9%
Prediction for Kansas vs. Baylor
All signs point to a close matchup in Waco on Saturday afternoon, with a lot on the line for both teams. It’s a slim possibility, but Baylor still has a shot at the Big 12 title game as one of nine teams who can still make the conference championship.
Meanwhile, Kansas has miraculously managed to salvage its season. Entering the game with a 5-6 record, the Jayhawks would become bowl-eligible with a road win. They’re on a hot streak, winning their last three games against ranked opponents with the rushing game.
The critical factors in this game are the two feature running backs. Neal and Bryson Washington are the focal points of their offenses, respectively.
Baylor has won all six games in which Washington has run for over 100 yards, while Kansas is averaging 181.7 rushing yards per game in 2024. This matchup is expected to be a high-scoring contest, with red-zone scoring high for both teams. The Jayhawks rank seventh nationally (93.9%) and the Bears 22nd (76.7%).
Meanwhile, Kansas ranks 61st in the nation, with an average of 147.4 rushing yards allowed per game. That is marginally better than Baylor, who ranks 73rd in the country with 155.4.
Whichever team can control the run game and the clock will be in the ascendancy. However, expect the game to go back and forth with potential passing power also on show, with Sawyer Robertson thriving for Baylor and Daniels finding form for Kansas.
Prediction: Baylor 34, Kansas 30
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