It seemed like the Kansas State Wildcats had finally hit their stride. That is, until a struggling Kansas team took them to the brink last week. The Wildcats survived, but was that a one-off clunker or a sign of things to come?
For the Houston Cougars, Year 1 under Willie Fritz has been a struggle, but they’re playing better football of late. Can the Cougars pull off the upset or will the Wildcats keep pace in the Big 12? Find out which way we lean in this Kansas State vs. Houston prediction.
Kansas State vs. Houston Betting Preview
All Kansas State vs. Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -13 - Spread
Kansas State -13 - Moneyline
Kansas State -650, Houston +470 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 3:30 ET - Location
TDECU Stadium | Houston, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, partly cloudy, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
FOX
Kansas State seems to have figured things out after starting slow, and while the shine in the immediate aftermath of Houston’s quarterback change has seemingly worn off, the Cougars are playing better football in October.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Wildcats are just under two-touchdown favorites. With a total of 46.5 points, Vegas is not impressed with Houton’s offense, implying a final score close to 30-17 in favor of the Wildcats.
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
Sitting at 7-1, the Wildcats have a real path to the Big 12 Championship and College Football Playoff. They’re heavy favorites, per CFN’s FPM, in their next three before a showdown with Big 12 frontrunner Iowa State to end the year. The Wildcats have a greater than 75% to win each of their next three games, including an 82.8% chance to beat the Cougars Saturday.
- at Houston: 82.8%
- vs. Arizona State: 75.3%
- vs. Cincinnati: 81.1%
- at Iowa State: 44.4%
Houston’s Winning Probability
After starting poorly this season, Houston seems to be putting it all together, but a bowl seems unlikely at this point. The Cougars would need to win three of four to end the year, and they’ll be underdogs in all four games, including a winning probability of just 17.2% Saturday.
- vs. Kansas State: 17.2%
- at Arizona: 21.9%
- vs. Baylor: 35.4%
- at BYU: 6.1%
Prediction for Kansas State vs. Houston
Kansas State has gone as Avery Johnson has gone this season, which is to say, mostly positive. The BYU defense absolutely baffled the young quarterback in a blowout win earlier in the year, but Johnson has figured things out in recent weeks. Kansas put up a fight last week, but the Wildcats eked out a victory over their rivals on the back of the defense.
Morton’s injury looks to be soome sort of collarbone or shoulder injury to his non-throwing arm. His status is uncertain for Saturday’s game.
Johnson didn’t play poorly by any means, but he didn’t have to be perfect in a close win.
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Houston’s Zeon Chriss is a capable dual-threat in his own right, as the Cougars’ offense has looked substantially improved since he took over. Still, it’s a unit with considerable cause for concern against more talented teams. Last week, the Cougars were able to grind out a win against Utah’s own ugly offense. That’s not possible this week against Kansas State’s firepower. If the Cougars want to win, they’ll need to score early and often.
Kansas State has shown itself vulnerable if a team comes in with a solid defensive game plan, and I think Fritz’s staff will be able to throw some looks at Johnson that he hasn’t seen.
That being said, there’s just too big of a talent gap right now. Given enough opportunities, the Wildcats’ offense will crack the code. It might be close early, but Kansas State should pull away. I’m not expecting much help from Houston towards the total and think Kansas State grinds out a low-scoring win, barely covering in the process.
Prediction: Kansas State 26, Houston 10
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