The Sunflower Showdown between the Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas State Wildcats appears one-sided on paper, with the former owning a 65-51-5 series lead. However, recent history paints a different story, as the Wildcats have won the last 15 meetings.
Gear up for the Saturday night scuffle with a deep dive into the latest odds, spread analysis, and our Kansas vs. Kansas State prediction.
Kansas vs. Kansas State Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. Kansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -12.5 - Spread
Kansas State -10 - Moneyline
Kansas State -360, Kansas +285 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kan. - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, 4 mph winds, clear with periodic clouds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Although the under has hit in five of the last seven games between these two teams, the over is the trendy play:
- The total has gone over in four of Kansas’ last five contests and four of Kansas State’s last six.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Kansas ATS has been far less productive, going 1-6 in the last seven contests, and the K-State moneyline appears juicy, as the program is 10-1 straight up in its last 11 at home.
Kansas’ Winning Probability
The FPM sees this game as a near-guaranteed loss for the Jayhawks, as they have a 17.4% win probability. At 2-5, they are playing for an outside shot at a bowl game and pride, but even if they upset the Wildcats, the road to another victory is daunting:
- vs. Iowa State: 23.4%
- at BYU: 10.9%
- vs. Colorado: 42.6%
- at Baylor: 39.4%
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, at 6-1, Kansas State is playing for a spot in the Big 12 Championship and the expanded College Football Playoff. Outside of a season finale against undefeated Iowa State, the Wildcats are proud owners of 74% and higher win probabilities down the stretch, beginning with an 82.6% rate against Kansas.
- at Houston: 87.4%
- vs. Arizona State: 74.6%
- vs. Cincinnati: 80.2%
- at Iowa State: 42.6%
Prediction for Kansas vs. Kansas State
Before a dominant 42-14 win against Houston, Kansas endured a three-game losing streak. Kansas State, meanwhile, has rattled off three straight victories, including a 45-18 trouncing of West Virginia last week.
Both programs are among the top 20 rushing offenses in the nation, but only one owns a top-five defense against the run: K-State, fifth (Kansas sits at 73rd).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Then, there’s the matter of the middling passing games. Neither Jalon Daniels nor Avery Johnson have been all that impressive through the air, but the latter is still a tier above. Daniels has thrown three more INTs (eight to five) and has a completion rate nearly six percentage points lower (56.6% to 62.4%).
Kansas State will win this game and should cover, but in-state rivalry games are always tricky to predict. Take the over as the “safe” play, as the Wildcats have scored 31+ in all but one game this season and the Jayhawks have generated 27+ over the last four weeks.
Prediction: Kansas State 38, Kansas 27
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