The Jacksonville State Gamecocks hit the road for Bowling Green, Ky., to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in their regular-season finale. While the Gamecocks have already locked up hosting rights for the Conference USA Championship Game, the Hilltoppers face a must-win situation to keep their title game hopes alive.
With everything on the line, our Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky prediction covers the latest odds, lines, and picks for this high-stakes CUSA showdown.
Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky Betting Preview
All Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Kentucky -1 - Spread
Western Kentucky -1 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -108, Western Kentucky -112 - Over/Under
62.5 - Game Time
4:00 p.m. ET - Location
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium | Bowling Green, Ky. - Predicted Weather at Kick
37 degrees, showers, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPNU
The Gamecocks and the Hilltoppers are neck and neck in the betting race, with oddsmakers making Jacksonville State slender favorites. Rich Rodriguez’s team is -1 with the bookmakers and is looking to win 9+ games for a second season in the CUSA. However, the CFN FPM leans the other way. Just slightly. Our metric makes Western Kentucky marginal favorites, preferring Tyson Helton’s side.
Western Kentucky has already secured bowl eligibility for the sixth successive year, retaining Helton’s record of reaching a bowl game each year he has been in Bowling Green.
However, this game’s undercurrent is the CUSA championship game ramifications. The Gamecocks have already secured their spot and home-field advantage. However, if the Hilltoppers prevail and the Liberty Flames were to lose to the Sam Houston Bearkats, Western Kentucky would be into the title game on Friday, Dec. 6.
Jacksonville State’s Winning Probability
The Gamecocks already know they will host the 2024 Conference USA Football Championship Game after winning eight straight games. However, their final regular season matchup is too close to call. The CFN FPM gives them a 48.8% chance of defeating the Hilltoppers.
at Western Kentucky: 48.8%
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
The CFN FPM gives Western Kentucky the edge in this game, likely because they are the home team. In a coin flip-type game, the Hilltoppers have a 51.2% chance of victory over the Gamecocks.
vs. Jacksonville State: 51.2%
Prediction for Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky holds a 4-2 all-time record over Jacksonville State, but the Gamecocks claimed the most recent matchup in 2023 with a narrow 20-17 victory. Historically, these two tend to deliver close contests, with just one blowout win for the Hilltoppers back in 2023.
This weekend’s showdown feels no different. It’s shaping up to be another tight battle. Jacksonville State enters the game on fire, riding an eight-game winning streak after starting the season 0-3. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is reeling, coming off two straight losses but fully aware they need a win to keep their postseason hopes alive.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
The Gamecocks’ ground game has been a force to reckon with in 2024. They’ve run the ball on 65.9% of their offensive plays, ranking third nationally with 260 rushing yards per game. Tre Stewart has led the way with 1,318 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, dominating the conference. On the flip side, WKU’s defense has struggled to stop the run, allowing an average of 208 rushing yards per game.
What could save the Hilltoppers is their aerial attack. Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 2,364 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions this season. If he can avoid turnovers, the WKU offense has the firepower to generate big plays with standout receivers like Kisean Johnson, Easton Messer, Dalvin Smith, and K.D. Hutchinson.
However, the offense has sputtered over the last two games, and offensive coordinator Will Friend will need to pull out all the stops on Saturday to turn things around.
WKU might just have the edge here. Jacksonville State has little on the line, and with a possible rematch looming in the CUSA Championship Game, the Gamecocks’ coaching staff may choose to keep some tricks under wraps.
On the other hand, the Hilltoppers are playing for their season. They’ll leave it all on the field in front of their home crowd, and that desperation could be the difference-maker in this must-win matchup.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 35, Jacksonville State 33
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.