“Weekday CUSA” has saved the very best for last as the Jacksonville State Gamecocks travel to Lynchburg to take on a Liberty Flames team looking to rebound from a shock defeat. With CUSA Championship Game permutations on the line, who wins this epic Week 10 encounter on Wednesday night?
Our Jacksonville State vs. Liberty prediction dives into all the essential details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Betting Preview
All Jacksonville State vs. Liberty odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Liberty -3 - Spread
Liberty -1.5 - Moneyline
Liberty -118, Jacksonville State -102 - Over/Under
63 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Williams Stadium | Lynchburg, VA - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, partly cloudy and mild, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
In the only previous encounter between the two teams as FBS programs, Liberty went into Alabama a year ago and got a comfortable 31-13 win that showcased their title-winning potential. However, that wasn’t the first-ever meeting of the Flames and Gamecocks, with Jacksonville State holding a 4-1 head-to-head lead. How will the record swing in Week 10?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Despite their defeat last week, Liberty enters the game against the Gamecocks as a slender favorite. There are plenty of little things that could swing this game in a big way, making any gamble a risky move. That said, Liberty covered and won their only previous time as a single-digit favorite, while Jacksonville State failed to cover and lost their only previous time as an underdog.
Jacksonville State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Jacksonville State has a 42.6% chance of beating Liberty on Wednesday night. The only time our metric predicted a Gamecocks’ loss prior to this Week 10 matchup was their defeat to the Louisville Cardinals.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Gamecocks in the 2024 season:
- at Liberty: 42.6%
- at Louisiana Tech: 63.1%
- vs. FIU: 74.6%
- vs. Sam Houston: 63.1%
- at Western Kentucky: 37.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Jacksonville State would end the year with a 7-5 overall record, including a 6-2 conference resume. That likely wouldn’t be good enough to make the CUSA Championship Game, especially if they lose to Liberty this week and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
Liberty’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Liberty has a 57.4% chance of beating Jacksonville State on Wednesday night. Our metric has favored the Flames in every game this season, including the Week 9 shock defeat to the Kennesaw State Owls. It’s worth noting that the CFN FPM spread was tighter than the official line from the oddsmakers.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Flames in the 2024 college football season:
- vs. Jacksonville State: 57.4%
- at Middle Tennessee: 75.3%
- at UMass: 75.3%
- vs. Western Kentucky: 50.6%
- at Sam Houston: 54.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Liberty would end the year with a 10-1 record, with just one loss in conference play. The 11-game slate (due to a canceled game) and loss to Kennesaw State likely prevent the Flames from a College Football Playoff berth, even as a potential CUSA champion.
Prediction for Jacksonville State vs. Liberty
Conference USA games don’t come much bigger than this. After a shaky start to the season, Jacksonville State has cruised to an undefeated conference record, looking stronger with every passing week. Meanwhile, Liberty has been a shadow of its 2023 self for the most part of the year, culminating in the upset last time out against a previously winless Kennesaw State team.
Can the Flames be reignited and inflict a first CUSA loss on this 2024 Gamecocks team, or will Rich Rodriguez’s high-octane offense prove too potent for Liberty on Wednesday night? Who has the edge, and where will the crucial battles unfold?
Jacksonville State enters the game on a red-hot streak of form that has seen them terrorize every CUSA opponent (and one from the Sun Belt) in their last four outings. They’ve scored more than 40 points in each of those games, and thrice held their opposition under three scores. Averaging 39.7 points per game in 2024, the offense ranks 12th in the nation.
They’ve been particularly dangerous on the ground, ranking fifth nationally for rushing yards per game (256.29) and yards per carry (5.98). Only three teams have more than the Gamecocks’ 27 rushing touchdowns. Running back Tre Stewart has been the driving force of their offense, while dual-threat Tyler Huff has averaged 7.0 yards per carry with eight rushing touchdowns.
With their ridiculously quick offense, they’ve seemed unstoppable at times. Meanwhile, the Liberty defense hasn’t looked as dominant as last season, devoid of the eye-popping turnover statistics that defined the unit in 2023.
However, they have one of the top rush defenses in CUSA, with several players — led by TJ Bush — making a nuisance of themselves in opposition backfields.
That’s the first major flash point of this game. If Liberty can hold the Gamecocks ground game, it will force them outside their comfort zone. Quarterback Huff leads CUSA in yards per attempt (9.3) but has thrown the ball just 152 times. The Gamecocks’ offense averages just 15.1 completions per game. Forcing an aerial assault could slow down this recently rampant unit.
The second major flash point, and this is a big one, is Liberty’s discipline and offensive game plan. The Flames have torched their own momentum multiple times this season with ludicrous penalties. They’re the most penalized team in the nation, averaging 91.7 penalty yards per game, with an average of 8.5 penalties a game. They have to be more disciplined in Week 10.
From an outside perspective, the offensive game plan this year has been perplexing. Star running back Quinton Cooley has been criminally underutilized. Sure, he’s had some injury issues, but he’s also been held back. Against a poor Kennesaw State rush defense, he had just nine carries after rattling off 100-yard games on double-digit attempts the previous two weeks.
Jacksonville State has a decent defense featuring returning playmaker J-Rock Swain and six different players with at least one interception (led by Zechariah Poyser). Still, they aren’t at the same level as last year when they led CUSA in multiple metrics, especially against the ground game where Cooley, Billy Lucas, and the legs of Kaidon Salter could thrive.
This game could go either way. There are plenty of reasons to believe that the Gamecocks can get the win on the road, with their electric offense clearly more dangerous than the Flames’ unit right now.
Liberty’s backs are against the wall after the defeat to Kennesaw State. However, that’s a dangerous place to place Jamey Chadwell, whose teams haven’t lost consecutive regular-season games since the 2019 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Buckle up; this could be one of the best games of the 2024 season.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 31, Liberty 33
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