Nearly 40 years have passed since their last matchup, but on Friday night, college football’s conference realignment brings the Iowa Hawkeyes and UCLA Bruins back together for an all-Big Ten clash.
Who comes out on top? Our Iowa vs. UCLA prediction dives into the key details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 season.
Iowa vs. UCLA Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -8 - Spread
Iowa -6.5 - Moneyline
Iowa -238, UCLA +195 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Rose Bowl | Pasadena, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, clear, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
Fox
While they haven’t met since 1986, this is the 10th all-time matchup between Iowa and UCLA. The Bruins hold a 6-3 head-to-head advantage (with one of the Hawkeyes’ wins coming by way of forfeit after UCLA won on the field), and they enter this Friday night matchup on something of a roll. However, Iowa is currently the oddsmakers’ favorite despite the line coming down.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Earlier in the week, DraftKings had the Hawkeyes at -6.5, but that line had come down to -5 by midweek, which bodes well for Iowa covering. They’re 5-3 ATS this year, as is UCLA, with both teams covering the spread in the last two games. There’s no trend to hop on, but given the CFN FPM spread is a field goal higher, it’s a solid bet to take the Hawkeyes to win and cover.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Iowa has a 73.8% chance of beating UCLA on Friday night. Our metric accurately projected the Hawkeyes’ last two wins over the Northwestern Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers and made them an underdog in their defeat to the Iowa State Cyclones in Week 2.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Iowa in the 2024 season:
- at UCLA: 73.8%
- at Maryland: 75.3%
- vs. Nebraska: 65.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Hawkeyes would end the year with a 9-3 record, including a 7-2 Big Ten campaign. Unless something dramatic happens down the stretch, Iowa would miss out on the College Football Playoff and Big Ten Championship Game.
UCLA’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives UCLA a 26.2% chance of beating the Hawkeyes on Friday night. It’s worth noting that our metric underestimated the Bruins in their last two games, making them an underdog in wins over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for UCLA in the 2024 season:
- vs. Iowa: 26.2%
- at Washington: 25.8%
- vs. USC 38.1%
- vs. Fresno State: 65.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bruins would end the year with a 4-8 record while going 2-7 in Big Ten play. The program hasn’t had a losing season since 2020. Furthermore, the last time they only had two conference wins was in 2016.
Prediction for Iowa vs. UCLA
The Big Ten returns to Fox on Friday night with a matchup that may not scream “must-watch,” but offers an intriguing contrast in offensive styles and defensive strengths. With two straight wins under their belt, UCLA still has a shot at bowl eligibility—though they’ll need to pull off an upset in the Rose Bowl to keep that hope alive.
Iowa, meanwhile, is already bowl-eligible after winning their last two games. The Hawkeyes had Big Ten title aspirations this season, even with four new teams joining the conference, but those dreams are hanging by a thread. A loss here would officially end any remaining hope. So, who has the upper hand, and where will the game be won?
The Deshaun Foster era at UCLA stumbled out of the gate, with a narrow Week 1 victory over Hawaii followed by a five-game losing streak. The Bruins struggled to find an offensive identity, and their defense allowed 30+ points in three straight games.
Despite lingering questions on defense (more on that soon), UCLA has turned a corner offensively. Ethan Garbers has lit up defenses the past two weeks, tossing six touchdowns, rushing for one, accumulating 602 passing yards, and completing 76.1% of his throws with zero interceptions. Right now, he is the UCLA offense.
That could spell trouble on Friday night. While Iowa has allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season, their defense—anchored by linebacker Jay Higgins and a strong secondary—has pulled in the second-most interceptions in the conference, holding opposing QBs to just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.
Garbers has thrown the second-most picks in the Big Ten this season.
While Iowa’s defense should be able to contain the Bruins’ offense, UCLA may struggle to stop Hawkeyes running back Kaleb Johnson. Johnson has racked up 1,279 yards and 19 touchdowns, averaging an impressive 7.5 yards per carry. He’s scored in every game this season, including seven multi-touchdown performances.
Only four Big Ten teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns than UCLA this year. Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai ran for 106 yards and three TDs against the Bruins, and I expect Johnson to have a similar night in an Iowa victory this Friday.
Prediction: Iowa 27, UCLA 17
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