The Iowa Hawkeyes have been one of the most hot-and-cold teams in college football this season, as some weeks have brought on classic jokes about the offensive offense while others have resulted in equally weird jokes about the Hawkeyes actually scoring points.
Conversely, it’s Year 0 for Jonathan Smith and the Michigan State Spartans. Who wins this classic Big Ten matchup? Get our thoughts on the spread and total in this Iowa vs. Michigan State prediction.
Iowa vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. Michigan State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -4.5 - Spread
Iowa -6 - Moneyline
Iowa -230, Michigan State +190 - Over/Under
41 points - Game Time
Oct. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Mich. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread are in step, as both favor the Hawkeyes by between a field goal and a touchdown. There’s been very little movement on both the spread and total here as they’ve stayed at their opening numbers.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 41 points, indicative of the lack of offense in this one. With a spread of six points, the implied final score is close to 23-17 in favor of the Hawkeyes.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
The FPM expects a typical Iowa season, with losses to the best teams on the schedule while the Hawkeyes take care of business against everyone else. Iowa has a 63.1% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 4.5 points.
This is one of three very similarly rated games for the Hawkeyes, who are favored in every remaining game. Here are Iowa’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Michigan State: 63.1%
- vs. Northwestern: 83.3%
- vs. Wisconsin: 63.1%
- at UCLA: 79.9%
- at Maryland: 63.6%
- vs. Nebraska: 54.3%
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
FPM thinks the back half of the Michigan State schedule is brutal. The Spartans have a 36.9% chance to win the game, per FPM, their third-easiest remaining game on the schedule. They are underdogs in five of the six remaining games.
Here are the Spartans’ winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Iowa: 36.9%
- at Michigan: 16.5%
- vs. Indiana: 20.4%
- at Illinois: 25.1%
- vs. Purdue: 64.6%
- vs. Rutgers: 46.4%
Prediction for Iowa vs. Michigan State
A Jekyll and Hyde Iowa is better than what we’ve seen in the past, as the offense at least flashes some potential. It’s hard to know what to make of the Hawkeyes, even after six games, but I’ll take a shot.
The Hawkeyes’ offense is averaging an astonishing (for them) 37 points a game in wins, clearing the 30-point mark in every such game. In losses, the Hawkeyes have averaged just 13 points a game, with just 264.5 yards per game in defeats. In fairness to the Hawkeyes, Ohio State and Iowa State are third and 11th in defensive SP+, respectively.
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Basically, this Kaleb Johnson-led offense is good enough to score on bad defenses, especially when Iowa’s own defense is as stingy as ever. However, the Hawkeyes are far too one-dimensional to make substantial progress against great defenses.
Michigan State isn’t a great defense. Even if the Spartan defense was one of those top units, I’m not sure it would matter.
The Spartan offense is one of the worst in the country at holding onto the ball. Iowa’s defense will swarm, and like two weeks ago against Oregon, it will be a struggle for the Spartans to get to double digits.
Iowa is going to do the thing again this year where it loses its biggest games and suffocates the rest of its competition in boring, mostly low-scoring games. They’ll just do it with a better rushing attack in 2024.
Take the Hawkeyes and the points and consider an under on Michigan State’s team total (DraftKings has under 14.5 at plus money).
I don’t have a good feel for how much the Hawkeyes will score, though I lean toward a late score pushing this over the total. I do, however, feel comfortable believing that a Michigan State team that struggled to score against FAU and Boston College will also struggle to put up points on Iowa.
Prediction: Iowa 30, Michigan State 13
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