The College Football Playoff may have slipped through their fingers, but the Iowa State Cyclones and Miami Hurricanes still have one last chance to end the 2024 season on a high note.
Iowa State’s hopes were dashed after a heartbreaking loss in the Big 12 Championship, while Miami stumbled late, dropping two of its final three games and missing the ACC title match.
Who will come out on top? Our Iowa State vs. Miami (FL) prediction breaks down everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they battle in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Iowa State vs. Miami (FL) Pop-Tarts Bowl Betting Preview
All Iowa State vs. Miami (FL) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -1 - Spread
Miami -3.5 - Moneyline
Miami -170, Iowa State +142 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 28 - Location
Camping World Stadium | Orlando, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ABC
December is not the month for both of these teams, as the Cyclones and ‘Canes are each 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games played in the month.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, the over has been a trendy bet for each, with Iowa State hitting it in its last three on the road and Miami cashing it in 11 of its last 15 contests overall.
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Matt Campbell has just two losing seasons in his nine years in Ames, and he’s coming off his best year yet. Although the Cyclones fell in the Big 12 title game, they still finished 10-3, their first double-digit win campaign ever. They’ll look to expand the win total to 11 in the Pop-Tarts Bowl against Miami.
- at Miami: 48.8%
Miami (FL)’s Winning Probability
Since the early 2000s, the ‘Canes have struggled to remain a dominant force in the ACC, and head coach Mario Cristobal entered the 2024 season with major pressure to produce results. He did just that with Washington State transfer QB Cam Ward at the helm of the offense as Miami rode to a 10-2 record.
Yet, the Hurricanes haven’t won a bowl game since 2016. Will they snap the streak against Iowa State?
- vs. Iowa State: 51.2%
Prediction for Iowa State vs. Miami (FL)
Miami’s Heisman finalist QB Cam Ward has said he’s playing in this game. He’ll be without WR Isaiah Horton, who entered the transfer portal, but the rest of the roster is relatively unscathed.
The same can be said for Iowa State, whose biggest portal losses were two rotational EDGEs in Kenard Snyder and Trent Jones II.
MORE: 2024 College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker
However, does Ward have enough around him to snap the Hurricanes’ five-game losing streak in bowls?
Yes, Miami suffered two debilitating losses to end the season, but what Ward, WR Xavier Restrepo, and RB Damien Martinez have done is nothing short of spectacular. The offense ranked first in EPA, third in success rate, and second in net points per drive.
Where does Iowa State rank in those metrics? 31st, 88th, and 52nd, respectively. “But it’s not offense vs. offense!” I hear you, but the ‘Canes also have the advantage there.
- Defensive success rate: Miami 15th; Iowa State 74th
- Early down EPA: Miami 36th; Iowa State 45th
- Red-zone rate: Miami 78.79%, 30th; Iowa State 87.50%, t-96th
- Sacks per game: Miami 2.6, t-25th; Iowa State 1.0, t-129th
Yeah, take Ward and Co. to cut the Cyclones’ historic season just short.
Prediction: Miami 34, Iowa State 23
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