Use your best Bruce Buffer impersonation to announce Week 13’s premier game: It’s time.
The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers head to Columbus, Ohio, to play one-loss Ohio State in a game that not only puts the winner in the Big Ten Football Championship Game but also nearly guarantees a College Football Playoff berth. Who wins this clash of a traditional titan against a new challenger? Find out which way we lean in this Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Indiana vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -7.5 - Spread
Ohio State -11 - Moneyline
Ohio State -430, Indiana +330 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 23, Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
41 degrees, cloudy, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the undefeated Hoosiers are double-digit underdogs to the traditionally strong Buckeyes. The Buckeyes have been challenged twice this year against Penn State and Oregon while the Hoosiers haven’t played against a team currently in the top 25.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 53.5 points and a spread of 11 points, the sportsbooks expect a score close to 32-21 in favor of the Buckeyes.
Indiana’s Winning Probability
While CFN’s FPM isn’t quite as low on the Hoosiers’ chances in this one as Vegas, it still has Indiana as a 7.5-point underdog. The metric gives the Hoosiers a 27% chance to win. They finish with the worst team in the Power Four, so their regular season really does seem to come down to this single game.
- at Ohio State: 27%
- vs. Purdue: 98.4%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio State has a 73% chance of beating Indiana at home. According to our metric, the Buckeyes will be even heavier favorites against their rival Michigan Wolverines. If the Buckeyes win out, they will appear in the Big Ten Championship, most likely against the Oregon Ducks
- vs. Indiana: 73%
- at Michigan: 91.9%
Prediction for Indiana vs. Ohio State
It all comes down to this (OK, and next week, I suppose). Indiana at Ohio State for a College Football Playoff berth and Big Ten Championship appearance.
Just like we all expected.
Look, we as a College Football Network staff universally praised the Curt Cignetti hire, and yet none of us expected this. The Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time in school history, and they have a real chance to not only make the College Football Playoff but to earn a first-round bye.
But first, they have to upset the Buckeyes. If they don’t, the mood — and discourse — around the Hoosiers will take a dramatic turn.
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Indiana, per our strength of schedule metric, has played the 66th-easiest schedule in the country so far. That’s a far better number than ESPN’s, which has the Hoosiers with the 100th-easiest schedule nationally.
Indiana is doing the best it can against the schedule it plays, winning all but one game by at least two touchdowns.
But if the Hoosiers get blown out Saturday, there’s going to be a real, understandable discussion about whether Indiana is an elite team or if it’s a Penn State: a team good enough to blow out the bottom-feeders of the Big Ten but unable to beat top teams.
On the flip side, a solid showing likely puts Indiana in the College Football Playoff, even in a loss.
In terms of the game itself, I like Indiana’s defense in this spot. It all comes down to the offensive line for the Buckeyes. They’re loaded at the skill positions with an average offensive line and a slightly above-average quarterback.
The path to victory for Indiana here is not a shootout but limiting possessions and taking advantage of Ohio State’s mistakes. I think Cignetti will be less aggressive defensively than we’ve seen in the past, as forcing the Buckeyes to drive the length of the field rather than allowing them to pick up yardage in chunks can lead the Ohio State offense into making mistakes.
That being said, I think Ohio State’s depth and talent at the receiver and defensive line positions ultimately prevail. Indiana really struggled against Michigan’s front in the second half, making little to no progress at all after halftime.
Ohio State has the talent up front to do that and the talent at receiver to hit some explosive throws, even when Indiana is defending specifically against that.
It might be close early, as I don’t expect Ohio State to jump out to a huge lead, but as the game progresses, the Buckeyes should pull away. Again, I’m more concerned about Indiana’s offense than its defense this week, so while I think the Buckeyes cover, I think it stays under the set total.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Indiana 14
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