The College Football Playoff has arrived, and the first-round matchups kick off on Dec. 20. One of the most intriguing storylines in this inaugural 12-team playoff is the clash of in-state rivals—the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Who comes out on top when these two Hoosier State powerhouses face off in South Bend? Our Indiana vs. Notre Dame prediction tells all.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview
All Indiana vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -3 - Spread
Notre Dame -7.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -278, Indiana +225 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Notre Dame Stadium | South Bend, IN - How To Watch
ABC
Though these teams are located less than 200 miles from one another, they haven’t played recently. The only matchup in the last 65 years was in 1991, a 49-27 Notre Dame victory. Indiana has won just one game in South Bend, the first game in series history in 1898.
There was some early line movement, with the spread dropping from 8.5 to 7.5 points and the total moving from 52.5 to 50.5 points. But that’s leveled off in the week leading up to the game, standing pat at -7.5 and 51 points.
The Fighting Irish are favored, even though both schools are 11-1 this season. The current implied final score is close to 29-22 in favor of the Fighting Irish.
Indiana’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Hoosiers, making them underdogs by only three points. That translates to a winning probability of 42.6%.
The Hoosiers will have to go on the road, but the weather isn’t as likely to hurt them as it would a team further to the south. If the Hoosiers pulled off the upset, they’d face the Georgia Bulldogs on their path to the national championship.
- at Notre Dame: 42.6%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Fighting Irish are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 57.4%. They’ll want to defend their home field and break the recent string of postseason failures that have plagued them in the past decade. If they win, they will face the Georgia Bulldogs on their path to the national championship.
- vs. Indiana: 57.4%
Prediction for Indiana vs. Notre Dame
I’m genuinely intrigued by this matchup. If the Hoosiers want a shot at pulling off an upset, it all comes down to whether the coaching staff can scheme effectively to mask the team’s weaknesses.
On paper, it’s a nightmare scenario for Indiana. They’ve thrived against teams with subpar defensive line play this season but struggled mightily when facing elite units like Ohio State and Michigan.
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Notre Dame’s defensive line? It’s elite—easily a top-five unit in the country. There’s no soft spot in their front seven, and that’s a major problem for Indiana. Had they drawn Penn State instead, they might have been able to exploit some opportunities by running at the pass rushers.
But Notre Dame? They bring the full package: a defensive line that can dominate both the run and the pass.
So, how does Indiana find a way to move the ball against a unit like this?
It’s not just that the Hoosiers struggled against Michigan and Ohio State—it’s that the offense completely vanished in those games. Against the Buckeyes, Indiana averaged just 1.7 yards per play in non-garbage time, and things only got worse with 0.72 yards per play in the second half against Michigan.
Here’s the tough reality: Notre Dame’s defensive line might be better than both. If Indiana can’t find a way to scheme around them, this game won’t even be close.
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On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame’s offense has been hitting its stride over the past month. Riley Leonard has added just enough of a deep passing threat to open up running lanes, and his ability to keep defenses honest with the quarterback run has bought him more time in the pocket.
That said, I have a lot of respect for Indiana’s defense. If the Hoosiers can find a way to get ahead early, they might have the tools to frustrate Notre Dame’s offense.
But that’s the catch: Indiana has to score to make that happen. And that won’t be easy against a Notre Dame secondary that, even while dealing with injuries, remains one of the best in the nation. Kurtis Rourke is going to have to thread the needle into some very tight windows if the Hoosiers want to stay competitive.
I don’t expect Indiana to be as lifeless on offense as they were in their earlier marquee matchups, but Notre Dame’s depth and experience present a steep challenge. Over the course of the game, the Irish will be more consistent on offense and break off a few explosive plays in the run game.
Indiana, meanwhile, will likely need to rely on big, high-variance plays—never an ideal strategy against a defense as disciplined as Notre Dame’s.
My pick? Notre Dame to cover, and I’m taking the under on what’s sure to be a cold, dreary night.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Indiana 14
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