Since 1950, the Indiana Hoosiers and Michigan State Spartans have clashed in the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon, with only a few seasons missing the rivalry. The stakes are high for the 2024 matchup, carrying implications for conference standings and potential playoff scenarios for one of these classic foes.
Our Indiana vs. Michigan State preview covers all the must-know details, from current betting odds to each team’s outlook as they navigate the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Indiana vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Indiana vs. Michigan State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Indiana -12 - Spread
Indiana -7.5 - Moneyline
Indiana -305, Michigan State +245 - Over/Under
53 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Spartan Stadium | East Lansing, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, partly sunny, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
Peacock
As rivalries go, the Battle for the Old Spittoon has historically been a one-sided affair. The Spartans hold a 50-18-2 head-to-head advantage, the largest victory, the longest win streak, and won the last encounter between the two teams. Yet, this Hoosiers team is very different to most of the ones that have come before, and is an understandable favorite in Week 10.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
You could argue that they’re being undersold by the oddsmakers right now, with a five-point difference between the DraftKings and CFN FPM spread. The one-score line is likely a reflection of ongoing uncertainty around quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Nonetheless, Indiana has covered the spread for seven straight games, covering by a nation-leading average 15.7 points.
Indiana’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Indiana has an 81.6% chance of victory on Saturday afternoon. Although Michigan State has historically had the better of this rivalry, the Hoosiers are a cut above the Spartans this season and should win comfortably.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Indiana in the 2024 college football campaign:
- at Michigan State: 81.6%
- vs. Michigan: 78.1%
- at Ohio State: 29.7%
- vs. Purdue: 95.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Hoosiers would end the year with an 11-1 record containing just one conference loss. Even with defeat to the Ohio State Buckeyes, as projected here, there is a possibility that Indiana plays in the Big Ten Championship Game. The playoffs are very much in reach.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Michigan State has just an 18.4% chance of winning the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon, according to the CFN FPM. While everything about our Indiana vs. Michigan State prediction suggestions a win for the Hoosiers, our metric has underestimated the Spartans once already this year (vs. Iowa).
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Michigan State in the 2024 college football campaign:
- vs. Indiana: 18.4%
- at Illinois: 25.4%
- vs. Purdue: 75.1%
- vs. Rutgers: 55.6%
Here those win probabilities were to hold true, the Spartans would end the year with a 6-6 record, earning bowl eligibility in the first year under Jonathan Smith. The program hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2022.
Prediction for Indiana vs. Michigan State
In just one season, Curt Cignetti has turned Indiana from one of the nation’s worst teams into a powerhouse with College Football Playoff aspirations. This Saturday, they travel to East Lansing aiming to extend their unbeaten streak to nine games and reclaim ground in the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon, a rivalry they’ve trailed since 1953.
They’ll face a Michigan State squad that launched to a 3-0 start under new head coach Smith but has managed only one win since, indicating their program’s turnaround may take more time.
However, just two weeks ago, they pulled off a win over a formidable Iowa team. Can they pull off another upset in Week 10? Who holds the advantage, and where will the key battles unfold?
Indiana being just a one-score favorite could stem from a range of factors—yet each seems questionable. If home-field advantage is a factor in the narrow spread, it’s worth noting that the Hoosiers have won their last two games in East Lansing, including a dominant 24-0 victory in the disrupted 2020 season.
Perhaps the Michigan State defense, ranked 35th nationally in points allowed, is another consideration. This season, the Spartans have allowed just 21.2 points per game. But that statistic is skewed, bolstered by shutouts against FCS Prairie View A&M, a low-scoring game against Florida Atlantic, and just 20 points allowed to Iowa.
Though they have playmakers, the headline figure needs context.
The biggest reason to think Michigan State might keep this game close is the injury status of Indiana’s star quarterback, Rourke, who was dominating before missing the last two games. But that view overlooks Indiana’s formidable ground game, led by Justice Ellison, Ty Son Lawton, Elijah Green, and backup QB Tayven Jackson.
Jackson proved his leadership in Indiana’s win over Washington, while a defense led by CFN All-American D’Angelo Ponds, Aiden Fisher, and Mikail Kamara has been one of the most stifling in the country.
Michigan State simply can’t keep up with the Hoosiers on either side of the ball, pointing to another convincing Indiana victory.
Prediction: Indiana 33, Michigan State 14
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.