The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers travel to Columbus, Ohio, to face the one-loss Ohio State Buckeyes in a showdown that will not only decide the Big Ten Football Championship Game but also likely secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Who comes out on top? Our Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they battle through the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Indiana vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -7.5 - Spread
Ohio State -10.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -410, Indiana +320 - Over/Under
53 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
41 degrees, cloudy, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Matchups don’t come much more historically one-sided than Indiana vs. Ohio State. Saturday marks the 97th matchup between the two teams, and the Buckeyes hold a 79-12-5 head-to-head advantage over the Hoosiers. Furthermore, they’ve won 28 on the bounce. While Week 13 might be Indiana’s best chance to win this one since 1988, they’re still a substantial underdog.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Being favored hasn’t always been to Ohio State’s advantage this season, losing to the Oregon Ducks with a -175 moneyline. They’ve also not done a great job covering the spread either, going 5-5 ATS this year. Indiana has been much better in this undefeated run, going 8-2 ATS. However, they’re coming off the back of their first spread failure since the opening game of 2024.
Indiana’s Winning Probability
While CFN’s FPM isn’t quite as low on the Hoosiers’ chances in this one as Vegas, it still has Indiana as a 7.5-point underdog. The metric gives the Hoosiers a 27% chance to win. They finish with the worst team in the Power Four, so their regular season really does seem to come down to this single game.
- at Ohio State: 27%
- vs. Purdue: 98.4%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio State has a 73% chance of beating Indiana at home. According to our metric, the Buckeyes will be even heavier favorites against their rival Michigan Wolverines. If the Buckeyes win out, they will appear in the Big Ten Championship, most likely against the Oregon Ducks
- vs. Indiana: 73%
- at Michigan: 91.9%
Prediction for Indiana vs. Ohio State
It all comes down to this (well, and next week, to be fair). Indiana travels to Ohio State in a game that could determine a College Football Playoff berth and a spot in the Big Ten Championship.
Just like we all predicted, right?
As a staff here at College Football Network, we universally praised the Curt Cignetti hire, but even we didn’t see this coming. The Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time in program history, with a legitimate chance not only to make the College Football Playoff but to secure a coveted first-round bye.
First, though, they’ll need to topple the Buckeyes. And if they can’t? The narrative surrounding Indiana could shift dramatically.
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According to our strength of schedule metric, Indiana has faced the 66th-easiest schedule in the country so far—significantly better than ESPN’s metric, which ranks their schedule as the 100th-easiest nationally. Still, the Hoosiers have taken care of business, winning all but one game by at least two touchdowns.
But if Indiana gets blown out on Saturday, it will ignite a very real—and fair—discussion about their legitimacy. Are the Hoosiers a true elite team, or are they the next Penn State? A squad that can crush the Big Ten’s bottom tier but struggles against top-tier opponents?
On the flip side, a competitive showing—even in a loss—could still earn Indiana a spot in the College Football Playoff.
As for the game itself, Indiana’s defense gives them a fighting chance. The key will be Ohio State’s offensive line. The Buckeyes are loaded at the skill positions, but their offensive line is average, and their quarterback is only slightly above that. For Indiana, the path to victory isn’t a shootout—it’s controlling the clock, limiting possessions, and capitalizing on Ohio State’s mistakes.
I expect Cignetti to dial back his typically aggressive defensive approach, focusing instead on forcing Ohio State to sustain long drives. This strategy could bait the Buckeyes into errors by denying them explosive plays.
That said, Ohio State’s depth and talent—especially at receiver and along the defensive line—should ultimately tip the scales. Indiana struggled mightily against Michigan’s defensive front in the second half, managing little to no offensive progress after halftime. Ohio State’s front can replicate that, while their receivers have the firepower to connect on big plays, even against a prepared Indiana defense.
I don’t anticipate Ohio State blowing the game open early. Indiana’s defense can keep it competitive in the first half. But as the game wears on, the Buckeyes’ talent advantage should take over. My bigger concern is Indiana’s offense, which may not be able to keep pace, even with a strong defensive showing.
Prediction? The Buckeyes cover, but the game stays under the total.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Indiana 14
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