The College Football Playoff is finally here, with the first-round matchups kicking off tonight, December 20. One of the most captivating storylines in this inaugural 12-team playoff is the clash between in-state rivals—the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Who will reign supreme in South Bend? Our Indiana vs. Notre Dame prediction has all the answers.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview
All Indiana vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -2.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -7 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -258, Indiana +210 - Over/Under
50 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Notre Dame Stadium | South Bend, IN - Weather
29 degrees, cloudy, winds 8-9 mph - How To Watch
ABC
Although separated by less than 200 miles, these teams have rarely crossed paths in recent history. Their only clash in the past 65 years came in 1991, when Notre Dame secured a commanding 49-27 victory. Indiana’s sole triumph in South Bend dates all the way back to the series opener in 1898.
Early betting saw the spread shift from 8.5 to 7.5 points, with the total dropping from 52.5 to 50.5 points. Since then, the lines have stabilized and dropped a bit more, sitting at -7 with a total of 50 points just hours before kick.
Both teams enter the matchup at 11-1, but Notre Dame holds the edge as the favorite. Oddsmakers are hinting at an implied final score of 28-21 in favor of the Fighting Irish.
Indiana’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Hoosiers, making them underdogs by only three points. That translates to a winning probability of 43.2%.
The Hoosiers will have to go on the road, but the weather isn’t as likely to hurt them as it would a team further to the south. If the Hoosiers pulled off the upset, they’d face the Georgia Bulldogs on their path to the national championship.
- at Notre Dame: 43.2%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Fighting Irish are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 56.8%. They’ll want to defend their home field and break the recent string of postseason failures that have plagued them in the past decade. If they win, they will face the Georgia Bulldogs on their path to the national championship.
- vs. Indiana: 56.8%
Prediction for Indiana vs. Notre Dame
I’m genuinely fascinated by this matchup. For the Hoosiers to have any shot at pulling off the upset, it all boils down to whether the coaching staff can design a game plan that masks the team’s shortcomings.
On paper, this is a nightmare for Indiana. Their success this season has come against teams with average defensive lines, but they’ve been completely overwhelmed by elite fronts like Ohio State and Michigan.
MORE: 2025 NFL DRAFT UNDERCLASSMAN TRACKER
Notre Dame’s defensive line? It’s not just elite—it’s comfortably one of the top five in the nation. Their front seven has no weak spots, which spells big trouble for Indiana. Against a team like Penn State, the Hoosiers might’ve had a chance to exploit openings by attacking the edge rushers directly.
But Notre Dame? They’re the full package—a defensive line that dominates both the run and the pass.
So, how does Indiana find a way to manufacture offense against a unit this dominant?
The problem isn’t just that the Hoosiers struggled against Michigan and Ohio State—it’s that their offense vanished entirely. Against the Buckeyes, they managed just 1.7 yards per play in non-garbage time, and somehow it got worse against Michigan, dipping to 0.72 yards per play in the second half.
Here’s the cold reality: Notre Dame’s defensive line might be even better than those. If Indiana can’t figure out a way to scheme around them, this one could spiral out of control quickly.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
On the flip side, Notre Dame’s offense has been firing on all cylinders lately. Riley Leonard has added enough of a vertical threat to stretch defenses, creating more room for the ground game. His dual-threat capabilities force defenders to account for the quarterback run, giving him extra time to work in the pocket.
That said, Indiana’s defense deserves some credit. If the Hoosiers can grab an early lead, they have the tools to frustrate Notre Dame’s offense.
But here’s the kicker: Indiana has to score first to make that happen, and that’s a tall task against a Notre Dame secondary that—despite injuries—remains one of the best in the country. Kurtis Rourke will have to deliver pinpoint throws into razor-thin windows to keep Indiana competitive.
I don’t think Indiana’s offense will look as lifeless as it did in earlier marquee matchups, but Notre Dame’s depth and experience are overwhelming. Over four quarters, the Irish will find consistency on offense and break off a few explosive plays.
Indiana, on the other hand, will have to rely on high-risk, high-reward plays—a strategy that rarely works against a defense as disciplined as Notre Dame’s.
My prediction? Notre Dame to cover, with the under hitting on what’s likely to be a cold, dreary evening.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Indiana 14
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.