The Oregon Ducks have ascended to the pole position of the AP Poll, but the story on Saturday is the Illinois Fighting Illini, who currently have a chance to make the College Football Playoff, especially with an easy November schedule.
An upset win for Bret Bielema’s squad would put them in prime position for premier postseason play. Can the Ducks defend their home turf and stave off a hungry Illini squad? Find out which way we lean in this Illinois vs. Oregon prediction.
Illinois vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Illinois vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -16 - Spread
Oregon -21 - Moneyline
Oregon -1450, Illinois +850 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium | Eugene, OR - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, rainy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
College football conference realignment once again throws together two teams who have been recent strangers, with this Illinois vs. Oregon matchup the first since 1995. The Ducks won two on the bounce in the early-mid 90s, overtaking a 1970 win by the Fighting Illini. Interestingly, given the substantial spread, the three previous encounters have all been one-score affairs.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, with the might of the Ducks starting to show, expecting this game to be close is something of a folly. They may be only 3-4 against the spread this year, but they have an average margin of victory of 18 points. Can Bielema boys keep it to a two-score game? Illinois is 5-1-1 against the spread this year, providing some hope for a tighter game than Vegas expects.
Illinois’ Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Illinois has just an 11% chance of emerging victorious when they travel to Eugene on Saturday. It’s comfortably the toughest test of their season so far — and to come. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Oregon: 11.0%
- vs. Minnesota: 73.4%
- vs. Michigan State: 78.1%
- at Rutgers: 64.6%
- at Northwestern: 81.6%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oregon has an 89% chance of overcoming the Fighting Illini in front of their home crowd. After defeating the Ohio State Buckeyes (and avoiding the Penn State Nittany Lions), there seems to be little standing in the way of an undefeated regular season and appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Illinois: 89.0%
- at Michigan: 83.0%
- vs. Maryland: 95.9%
- at Wisconsin: 85.9%
- vs. Washington: 94.5%
Prediction for Illinois vs. Oregon
Look at the winning probabilities for Illinois.
A win on Saturday puts the Illini in a prime position to finish the year at 11-1 with Big Ten Championship Game and College Football Playoff berths. This is a huge game, perhaps one of the biggest in school history.
The issue is that, on paper, the Ducks are substantially more talented. Oregon hasn’t come close to reaching their offensive potential, though we’ve seen glimpses of how precise the passing attack can be.
That being said, Illinois has the ability to make this ugly. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is good for one or two bad throws a game, and the Illini have the defensive talent to make him pay.
Bielema excels at mucking up games and taking more talented teams out of their element. He usually doesn’t have the offensive talent to take full advantage, though, and that’s where I land here.
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Even if Illinois outplays Oregon for most of the game, the Illini lack the offensive firepower to push Oregon to the brink. I love the under as a play here, as I think Illinois relies on its strong red-zone defense to keep Oregon out of the end zone.
At times, the Ducks have struggled to finish drives this year, but so far, it hasn’t truly hurt them.
There’s too much firepower on this Ducks offense and too much talent on this Ducks defense for Illinois to pull off an improbable upset, but that doesn’t mean Oregon will coast. Expect it to look dicey midway through before the Ducks pull away late.
I don’t think this will go over, and while the Ducks should win rather comfortably, I think Illinois covers and wouldn’t be shocked if the Illini pulled off an outright upset.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Illinois 13
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