Illinois vs. Penn State in Week 5 is a big-time top-20 matchup in the Big Ten. The Fighting Illini moved to No. 19 in the country following a hard-fought overtime road win over then-nationally ranked Nebraska last Friday night.
Penn State has jumped into the top 10 following a convincing home beatdown of Kent State. Now, the Nittany Lions are preparing for their 2024 Big Ten opener against Illinois. How will they fare? Our Illinois vs. Penn State prediction holds the answers.
Illinois vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Illinois vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Sept. 25.
- Spread
Penn State -18 - Moneyline
Illinois +550, Penn State -1000 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Pa. - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, partly cloudy - How To Watch
NBC
The spread has been up and down, a perfect metaphor for the excitement of the Big Ten. It opened at -17.5, momentarily jumped to -18 in Penn State’s favor, and returned to its original opening number before settling midweek at -18 once more.
The total has been nearly the same, after opening at 48.5, dropping to 47.5, before coming to rest at the midway mark — 48 points — on Wednesday.
Illinois comes in 3-1 against the spread (ATS), as their only ATS loss was by half a point, barely failing to cover 21.5 against Central Michigan. Penn State comes in 2-1 ATS as their lone loss against the spread was a surprisingly close seven-point victory over Bowling Green as 34.5-point favorites.
Prediction for Illinois vs. Penn State
This line is a bit surprising to me. I thought we’d see this closer to the 10.5-12 range. Illinois just showed they can go into a raucous environment and play sound football on both sides of the ball. And while Penn State is undoubtedly a better team than Nebraska, Illinois showed last Friday night.
For me, it starts with Altmyer. He’s been an excellent decision-maker for the Illini with the football. He has the ability to make big-time throws and is mobile enough to extend drives using his feet. He’s been exceptionally accurate and consistently puts the ball where only his guy has a chance to make a play.
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I’ve been high on Allar since before the start of his freshman year. He’s got the prototypical pro-style quarterback body with a big arm and some mobility. His issues have been accuracy and touch, which he is clearly working on, but he hasn’t seen a defense quite like the one Illinois is bringing to Pennsylvania in 2024. It’s going to be interesting to see how Allar performs on Saturday.
I think the Nittany Lions will get it done in prime time, but I think this is a bit of a dogfight, and the rest of the Big Ten will be put on notice that Illinois is a legitimate test for anyone in 2024.
Prediction: Illinois 14, Penn State 24
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