The Oregon Ducks have climbed to the top spot in the AP Poll, but Saturday’s spotlight is on the Illinois Fighting Illini, who find themselves with a real shot at the College Football Playoff, thanks to a favorable November slate.
A surprise victory for Bret Bielema’s team could catapult them into contention for a major postseason berth. Will the Ducks hold strong at home, or will the Illini seize the moment? Dive into our Illinois vs. Oregon prediction to see which side we’re backing.
Illinois vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Illinois vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -16 - Spread
Oregon -21.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -1350, Illinois +800 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium | Eugene, OR - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, rainy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
College football conference realignment brings together two teams that haven’t met in decades, as Illinois faces Oregon for the first time since 1995. Back then, the Ducks took two straight wins in the mid-90s, following a 1970 victory by the Fighting Illini. Despite the considerable spread, it’s worth noting that all three previous matchups were decided by just one score.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Yet, with Oregon’s strength becoming evident, expecting a close game may be overly optimistic. While the Ducks are only 3-4 against the spread this season, they boast an average winning margin of 18 points. Can the Bielema boys keep it within two scores? Illinois is 5-1-1 against the spread this season, offering a glimmer of hope for a tighter contest than Vegas anticipates.
Illinois’ Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Illinois has just an 11% chance of emerging victorious when they travel to Eugene on Saturday. It’s comfortably the toughest test of their season so far — and to come.
- at Oregon: 11.0%
- vs. Minnesota: 73.4%
- vs. Michigan State: 78.1%
- at Rutgers: 64.6%
- at Northwestern: 81.6%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oregon has an 89% chance of overcoming the Fighting Illini in front of their home crowd. After defeating the Ohio State Buckeyes (and avoiding the Penn State Nittany Lions), there seems to be little standing in the way of an undefeated regular season and appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game.
- vs. Illinois: 89.0%
- at Michigan: 83.0%
- vs. Maryland: 95.9%
- at Wisconsin: 85.9%
- vs. Washington: 94.5%
Prediction for Illinois vs. Oregon
Take a look at the winning probabilities for Illinois.
A win on Saturday could put the Illini in a prime spot to finish the season 11-1, with potential berths in the Big Ten Championship Game and College Football Playoff. It’s a monumental game—arguably one of the biggest in school history.
The challenge is that, on paper, the Ducks have a significant talent edge. While Oregon hasn’t fully tapped into its offensive potential, we’ve seen flashes of how sharp their passing attack can be.
However, Illinois has a knack for turning games into a grind. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel tends to make a mistake or two per game, and Illinois has the defensive strength to capitalize on those errors.
Bret Bielema is known for disrupting the rhythm of more talented teams, forcing them out of their comfort zones. The challenge, though, is that he often lacks the offensive firepower to make the most of those opportunities—this matchup is no different.
Even if Illinois outperforms Oregon for much of the game, their offense may struggle to push the Ducks to the edge. I like the under in this game, as I believe Illinois will lean on its strong red-zone defense to keep Oregon from finding the end zone too often.
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Oregon has had issues finishing drives at times this season, though it hasn’t cost them significantly so far.
With the firepower on both sides of the ball, Oregon should have enough to fend off an upset. But it won’t be a walk in the park—expect a tense contest before the Ducks pull away in the later stages.
While I don’t see this going over the total, I think Illinois has a good shot at covering the spread, and an outright upset wouldn’t be entirely out of the question.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Illinois 13
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