With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and the (for now) collapse of the Pac-12, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed a place in college football’s postseason tournament.
According to the latest College Football Playoff predictions powered by the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, the UNLV Rebels are in pole position to take that place and compete for the 2024 national championship after an enthralling Week 8 slate of games.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Group of Five Race to the Postseason
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
- UNLV Rebels – 31.8%
- Army Black Knights – 30.2%
- Memphis Tigers – 24.7%
- Boise State Broncos – 24.5%
- Liberty Flames – 22.6%
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns – 19.5%
- James Madison Dukes – 12.7%
- Navy Midshipmen – 10.7%
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – 10.1%
- Georgia Southern Eagles – 6.4%
UNLV Rebels – 31.8%
UNLV received just five votes in the latest AP Top 25 Poll, but Barry Odom’s team has arguably got the best resume of any of the Group of Five contenders to reach the postseason tournament. They have two Power Four scalps (Houston and Kansas) and were an overtime field goal away from adding a third after a narrow defeat to the Syracuse Orange.
The Rebels have rebounded from that defeat in devasting fashion, tearing apart the Utah State Aggies under the Friday Night Lights before securing a win over a former Power Four protagonist in the Oregon State Beavers. Their Friday night clash with Boise State is a pivotal clash in the race to the playoff, and CFN FPM gives the Rebels a two-point advantage in that game.
Army Black Knights – 30.2%
It is the year 2024, and both the Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen are ranked in the AP Poll Top 25 past the halfway mark of the college football season. No, this is not a typo. It’s evidence of how dominant both teams have been this season, with both teams currently undefeated.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Army currently ranks one place higher than Navy, and an easier conference schedule gives them a greater CFN FPM percentage chance of reaching the postseason, according to our latest Group of Five College Football Playoff predictions. Realistically, only the trip to the North Texas Mean Green stands between them and an unbeaten debut season in the American Athletic Conference.
Memphis Tigers – 24.7%
When the SMU Mustangs bolted to the ACC, many presumed that Memphis would be the team to pick up the baton as the leading challenger to the Tulane Green Wave in the AAC. Comfortable out-of-conference wins early in the season (including a Florida State Seminoles-shaped Power Four scalp on their resume) seemed to play into that assumption of Ryan Silverfield’s team.
The defeat to Navy threw a spanner into the works of their AAC campaign and playoff legitimacy. Still, the Tigers are ready to pounce in the eventuality that one of Army or Navy falls along the wayside (with both service academies facing Notre Dame). The Thursday night clash with Tulane that ends the season could be a win-and-into-consideration game for Memphis.
Boise State Broncos – 24.5%
Boise State is currently in the pound seat for the College Football Playoff as the 17th ranked team in the AP Poll. If the season were to end now, and the Broncos were to win the Mountain West Championship, then they’d be the 12th seed facing a road trip to likely an SEC or Big Ten powerhouse. So, I hear you ask, why are they only the fourth team listed here?
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Well, these Power Five College Football Playoff predictions are exactly that: predictions. They consider the remainder of the schedule and the chances to win a conference title. While they’re the betting favorite to win in Las Vegas on Friday night, CFN FPM gives UNLV a 52.5% chance of beating Spencer Danielson’s team, with a probable title game rematch having significant implications.
Liberty Flames – 22.6%
If the 12-team format had existed last season, the Liberty would have been the Group of Five representative after going undefeated and winning the CUSA title before coming unstuck against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. That performance shouldn’t factor into consideration around Jamey Chadwell’s team when making 2024-2025 College Football Playoff predictions.
Despite an overtime scare against the FIU Panthers in Week 7, the Flames remain undefeated in the 2024 college football season and have a 19.4% chance of winning out their remaining schedule. That slate only containing 11 regular season games (the chance of replacing the canceled Appalachian State matchup seems slim) could come back to hurt Liberty later in the year.
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