With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and the (for now) collapse of the Pac-12, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed a place in college football’s postseason tournament.
According to the latest College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, the Army Black Knights are in pole position to take that place and compete for the 2024 national championship after an enthralling Week 7 slate of games.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Group of Five Race to the Postseason
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
- Army Black Knights – 36.2%
- Liberty Flames – 36%
- James Madison Dukes – 35.5%
- Boise State Broncos – 30.3%
- UNLV Rebels – 21.1%
- Memphis Tigers – 14.6%
- Toledo Rockets – 13.1%
- Navy Midshipmen – 12.4%
- Texas State Bobcats – 11.2%
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns – 10.8%
Army Black Knights – 36.2%
In recent years, the American Athletic Conference has been at the forefront of the Group of Five as far as New Year’s Six bowls are concerned, and an undefeated conference champion likely has the inside track to the College Football Playoff under the new format. Right now, there are just two undefeated teams in the AAC, and they’re both service academies.
With the easier strength of schedule, Army has the better opportunity to run the conference table, setting up a potential Army-Navy Game double-header to end the year. Jeff Monken’s team has been ruthless this season, leading the conference in rushing offense (369.8 yards per game), total defense (267.3 yards per game), and scoring defense (9.8 points per game).
Liberty Flames – 36%
If the 12-team format had existed last season, the Liberty Flames would have been the Group of Five representative after going undefeated and winning the CUSA title before coming unstuck against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. That performance shouldn’t factor into consideration around Jamey Chadwell’s team when making 2024-2025 College Football Playoff predictions.
Despite an overtime scare against the FIU Panthers in Week 7, the Flames remain undefeated in the 2024 college football season and have a 24.2% chance of winning out their remaining schedule. That slate only containing 11 regular season games (the chance of replacing the canceled Appalachian State matchup seems slim) could come back to hurt Liberty later in the year.
James Madison Dukes – 35.5%
Although there are several Group of Five teams in the AP Poll and the James Madison Dukes didn’t receive a single vote, don’t rule out Bob Chesney’s team of making a run to the College Football Playoff. According to the CFN FPM, the Dukes have the best chance of winning out (31.7%) in the nation, with a 45% chance of winning the Sun Belt and 35.5% chance to make the playoff.
James Madison rebounded from defeat to the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks with a convincing beatdown of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in Week 7. A road trip to the Georgia Southern Eagles won’t be easy, but with the top-ranked scoring offense in the conference (39.0 points per game) and a dangerous defense, they should prevail. A Power Four win on their resume also helps for playoff potential.
Boise State Broncos – 30.3%
The Mountain West is one of the most intriguing conferences to watch in the race for the College Football Playoff. The UNLV Rebels, with two Power Four wins on their resume, had looked like an early frontrunner. Yet, the Boise State Broncos are currently the highest-ranked Group of Five program in the AP Poll, moving up two spots to 15th after a win in Week 7.
As such, that appears to give them the inside track to a postseason berth. However, our College Football Playoff projections factor in the potential that they won’t win their conference, as they’re currently the second favorite (28.7%) behind UNLV to lift the Mountain West crown. An October 25 clash against the Rebels will be a defining moment in the season.
UNLV Rebels – 21.1%
UNLV received just one vote in the latest AP Top 25 Poll, but Barry Odom’s team has arguably got the best resume of any of the Group of Five contenders to reach the postseason tournament. They have two Power Four scalps (Houston and Kansas) and were an overtime field goal away from adding a third after a narrow defeat to the Syracuse Orange.
The Rebels rebounded from that defeat in devasting fashion, tearing apart the Utah State Aggies under the Friday Night Lights. A road trip to Corvallis is the next obstacle to overcome before the team faces Boise State in Las Vegas. Homefield advantage might be the key to overcoming the Broncos, and if they can stop Ashton Jeanty and secure a win, a top 25 ranking is there for the taking.
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