With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and the (for now) collapse of the Pac-12, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed a place in college football’s postseason tournament.
According to the latest College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, the James Madison Dukes are in pole position to take that place and compete for the 2024 national championship.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Group of Five Race to the Postseason
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
- James Madison Dukes – 70.1%
- UNLV Rebels – 47.8%
- Liberty Flames – 39.8%
- Boise State Broncos – 18.1%
- Memphis Tigers – 16.9%
- Army Black Knights – 15.1%
- Navy Midshipmen – 10.9%
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 7.4%
- Toledo Rockets – 5.5%
- Tulane Green Wave – 5.1%
James Madison Dukes – 70.1%
When Curt Cignetti left Harrisonburg, taking a good chunk of the coaching staff and playing talent with him, a lot of people wrote off the James Madison Dukes as a Sun Belt contender, let alone a College Football Playoff candidate. After struggling to take down FCS Gardner-Webb in Week 2, seeing them ranked among the Group of Five frontrunners may have been laughable.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Let’s call it an acclimation period because since then, Bob Chesney’s team has looked unstoppable. The offense kicked into gear against the North Carolina Tar Heels, embarrassing Mack Brown and adding a Power Four scalp to their resume. The nature of their Week 5 win over Ball State showcases why they’re in a good position to roll through the rest of their schedule.
UNLV Rebels – 47.8%
No Matthew Sluka? No problem. The news that has the potential to reshape the college football landscape could have derailed what was looking like a promising season for the UNLV Rebels. However, it has instead galvanized the team behind new QB1 Hajj-Malik Williams, and they added to a resume that already features two Power Four wins with a big Mountain West win.
While other Mountain West teams seek out new pastures, namely the Pac-12, the UNLV Rebels look to be the program best placed to take the conference into the promised land of the College Football Playoff. Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said before the season that she believed they’d put their teams in a good position to make the final 12 teams, and our predictions concur.
Liberty Flames – 39.8%
If the 12-team format had existed last season, the Liberty Flames would have been the Group of Five representative after going undefeated and winning the CUSA title before coming unstuck against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. That performance shouldn’t factor into consideration around Jamey Chadwell’s team when making 2024-2025 College Football Playoff predictions.
If you remember from last week, the Flames actually led our Group of Five predictions for the College Football Playoff. Through no fault of their own, however, they had the hardest game on their schedule taken away from them (Appalachian State), which could impact their standing in the eyes of the committee. The Flames are reportedly trying to find a replacement opponent.
Boise State Broncos – 18.1%
The American Athletic Conference is usually at the forefront of the playoff conversation, but our latest College Football Playoff predictions showcase — as mentioned above — that the Mountain West has as strong of a claim for inclusion in December than any other Group of Five conference. While UNLV is the favorite to win the conference, the Broncos will push them hard all the way.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
The October 25 matchup between the two teams is a pivotal clash for any College Football Playoff predictions. Boise State already has a loss on their resume (albeit a narrow one to Oregon) but their performance against a previously unbeaten Washington State team underscores their potential. When you have Ashton Jeanty on your team, anything is possible.
Memphis Tigers – 16.9%
Once the Group of Five darling of College Football Playoff predictions, the last two weeks have been tough on the Memphis Tigers. Having got a Power Four win under their belt by beating Florida State, all that good work was undone with a defeat to the Navy Midshipmen. They weren’t exactly convincing in beating a poor Middle Tennessee team in Week 5, either.
There was a time when the AAC champion was viewed as a lock for the New Year’s Six bowl game and the only real contender to break the College Football Playoff. However, with one conference loss already on their resume, Ryan Silverfield’s team is likely going to need to win out (projected 9-2 record from CFN’s FPM) and win the conference to stand a chance of making the final 12.
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