With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and the (for-now) collapse of the Pac-12, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed a place in college football’s postseason tournament. According to the latest College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, the Liberty Flames are in pole position to take that place and compete for the 2024 national championship.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Group of Five Race to the Postseason
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
- Liberty Flames – 71.2%
- James Madison Dukes – 30.9%
- UNLV Rebels – 23%
- Memphis Tigers – 20.1%
- Texas State Bobcats – 14.2%
- Boise State Broncos – 13.1%
- Fresno State Bulldogs – 10.9%
- Army Black Knights – 7.7%
- Navy Midshipmen – 7%
- Toledo Rockets – 6.8%
Liberty Flames – 71.2%
If the 12-team format had existed last season, the Liberty Flames would have been the Group of Five representative after going undefeated and winning the CUSA title before coming unstuck against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. That performance shouldn’t factor into consideration around Jamey Chadwell’s team when making 2024-2025 College Football Playoff predictions.
After navigating one tricky out-of-conference clash with East Carolina after a monumental weather delay, Week 5 brings another significant test outside CUSA play with the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Currently projected to go 11-1 with an 18.9% chance of winning out, a win on Saturday could go a long way to sealing a spot in the postseason tournament.
James Madison Dukes – 30.9%
When Curt Cignetti left Harrisonburg, taking a good chunk of the coaching staff and playing talent with him, a lot of people wrote off the James Madison Dukes as a Sun Belt contender, let alone a College Football Playoff candidate. After struggling to take down FCS Gardner-Webb in Week 2, seeing them ranked among the Group of Five frontrunners may have been laughable.
Then Bob Chesney’s offensive kicked into gear in Week 4 and obliterated the North Carolina Tar Heels, adding a Power Four scalp to an ever-growing list of scalps on the young FBS program’s resume. The latest College Football Playoff predictions see them emerge as a true contender, with one of the easiest Sun Belt schedules paving the road to postseason action.
UNLV Rebels – 22.1%
While other Mountain West teams seek out new pastures, namely the Pac-12, the UNLV Rebels look to be the program best placed to take the conference into the promised land of the College Football Playoff.
Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said before the season that she believed they’d put their teams in a good position to make the 12 teams, and our College Football Playoff predictions concur.
The Rebels have a Power Four win on their resume (Kansas), with another opportunity to impress nationally against Syracuse. While that and a tough in-conference schedule give them a 3.5% chance of winning out and a projected 9-3 record, UNLV still has a 22.1% chance of making the playoff.
Memphis Tigers – 20.1%
What a difference a day makes. The Memphis Tigers looked to be cruising through the 2024 season, with our Week 4 College Football Playoff predictions making them a significant favorite to lead the Group of Five into the promised land. However, the Tigers were tamed by the Navy Midshipmen in one of the biggest shocks of the weekend’s action, ending their undefeated run.
Now, Memphis does still have a Power Four win on their resume, and the value of that win might improve if the Florida State Seminoles continue to build on their first win of the season. However, last season showed how important going undefeated is, and with one loss on their resume already, there can be no further slip-ups for Ryan Silverfield and his team.
Texas State Bobcats – 14.2%
If either Liberty, James Madison, or UNLV slips up, the Texas State Bobcats are waiting to pounce. GJ Kinne’s team is one of the trendy teams in college football right now and came close to securing the sort of Power Four resume win that helps power a playoff push against Arizona State in Week 3.
The Bobcats are a significant favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference, with a 41.8% chance of landing the title, according to the CFN FPM. Their defense gets after it, leading the country in sacks per game and the Texas State offense led by Jordan McCloud is one of the most potent in the nation.
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