With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and the (for now) collapse of the Pac-12, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed a place in college football’s postseason tournament.
According to the latest College Football Playoff predictions powered by the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, the Boise State Broncos are in pole position to take that place and compete for the 2024 national championship after emerging victorious from a heavyweight Friday night slugfest in Week 9.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Group of Five Race to the Postseason
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
- Boise State Broncos: 48.7%
- Army Black Knights: 47.8%
- Memphis Tigers: 22.5%
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns: 18.8%
- James Madison Dukes: 13.5%
- UNLV Rebels: 11.7%
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 10.3%
- Tulane Green Wave: 6.8%
- Navy Midshipmen: 5.9%
- Liberty Flames: 5.5%
Boise State Broncos – 48.7%
Boise State is in the pound seat for the College Football Playoff, and are essentially masters of their own destiny from here on out. After beating arguably their most significant competition for a spot in the 12-team tournament in a Week 9 Friday night all-Mountain West showdown, they’re ranked 15th in the latest AP Poll, six spots ahead of their nearest Group of Five competitors.
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Our College Football Playoff predictions powered by the CFN FPM give the Broncos a 48.7% chance of making it to the postseason showcase after Week 9. Spencer Danielson’s team, led by Ashton Jeanty, only needs to win out from here, and they should easily secure the 12th seed — and potentially higher. The stumbling block? A likely rematch with UNLV in early December.
Army Black Knights – 47.8%
It is the year 2024, and the Army Black Knights are ranked 21st in the AP Poll Top 25 past the halfway mark of the college football season. No, this is not a typo. It’s evidence of how dominant Jeff Monken’s team has been behind Heisman Trophy contender and legitimate dual-threat quarterback Bryson Daily.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
After a bye week in which the American Athletic Conference saw the Navy Midshipmen humbled by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Memphis played close by the Charlotte 49ers, Army’s chances of making the playoff jumped to 47.8%, per CFN FPM. Realistically, only the trip to the North Texas Mean Green stands between them and an unbeaten debut season in the AAC.
Memphis Tigers – 22.5%
When the SMU Mustangs bolted to the ACC, many presumed that Memphis would be the team to pick up the baton as the leading challenger to the Tulane Green Wave in the AAC. Comfortable out-of-conference wins early in the season (including a Florida State Seminoles-shaped Power Four scalp on their resume) seemed to play into that assumption of Ryan Silverfield’s team.
The defeat to Navy threw a spanner into the works of their AAC campaign and playoff legitimacy. Still, the Tigers are ready to pounce in the eventuality that Army drops a conference game or falls to Notre Dame in truly embarrassing fashion. The Thursday night clash with Tulane that ends the season could be a win-and-into-consideration game for Memphis.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns – 18.8%
Louisiana was a perennial power in the Sun Belt under Billy Napier but has fallen off the national radar in the last two years under Michael Desormeaux. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns have snuck up on everybody this season, currently sitting at 6-1 with an unblemished conference record. They also have a Power Four win after beating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in Week 5.
The CFN FPM gives them a 53.6% chance of winning the Sun Belt, with road games at the Texas State Bobcats and Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks arguably their toughest remaining games. Led by QB Ben Wooldridge and a trio of running backs that have averaged over five yards per carry each, Louisiana garnered multiple AP Poll Top 25 votes in the post-Week 9 rankings.
James Madison Dukes – 13.5%
After four weeks and a comprehensive win over the North Carolina Tar Heels, the James Madison Dukes looked to have the inside track to the College Football Playoff. However, after two defeats to Louisiana-Monroe and the Georgia Southern Eagles, they’ve plummeted down our College Football Playoff predictions, with the CFN FPM giving them a 13.5% chance.
Yet, there is still a chance. Bob Chesney’s team can still make it to the Sun Belt Championship Game despite the two conference defeats, and on their day, the Duke’s are capable of beating anyone in the conference. As a conference title winner, it will only take a loss here and there for some of the other teams mentioned here for James Madison to crack the 12-team format.
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