With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and the (for-now) collapse of the Pac-12, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed a place in college football’s postseason tournament. According to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, the Memphis Tigers are in pole position to take that place and compete for the 2024 national championship.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Group of Five Race to the Postseason
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
- Memphis Tigers – 78.3%
- Liberty Flames – 66.6%
- UNLV Rebels – 22.1%
- Texas State Bobcats – 17%
- Boise State Broncos – 14%
- Northern Illinois Huskies – 9.9%
- Toledo Rockets – 8.3%
- Fresno State Bulldogs – 8.2%
- James Madison Dukes – 5.9%
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns – 3.7%
Memphis Tigers – 78.3%
With the SMU Mustangs departed for the ACC and the Tulane Green Wave going through a transitional period in 2024, the Memphis Tigers were a strong preseason contender to represent the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff. All Ryan Silverfield’s team has done since then is prove their worth with impressive displays and the scalp of a Power Four program.
The CFN FPM gives Memphis a substantial advantage over all other Group of Five teams in our College Football Playoff predictions. The Tigers have a 20.7% chance of going undefeated and a 78.3% chance of making the 12-team tournament due to quarterback Seth Henigan’s play and a defense that has allowed just 224.7 yards per game so far.
Liberty Flames – 66.6%
If the 12-team format had existed last season, the Liberty Flames would have been the Group of Five representative after going undefeated and winning the CUSA title before coming unstuck against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. That performance shouldn’t factor into consideration around Jamey Chadwell’s team when making 2024-2025 College Football Playoff predictions.
Liberty enters Week 4 undefeated once more but has tricky out-of-conference ties with East Carolina and Appalachian State to navigate over the next two weeks. The CFN FPM gives them a 14.6% to win their remaining games, with an 80.4% chance of repeating as CUSA champions and a 66.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Where there’s a Kaidon Salter, there’s a way.
UNLV Rebels – 22.1%
While other Mountain West teams seek out new pastures, namely the Pac-12, the UNLV Rebels look to be the program best placed to take the conference into the promised land of the College Football Playoff.
Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said before the season that she believed they’d put their teams in a good position to make the 12 teams, and our College Football Playoff predictions concur.
The Rebels have a Power Four win on their resume (Kansas), with another opportunity to impress nationally against Syracuse. While that and a tough in-conference schedule give them a 3.3% chance of winning out and a projected 9-3 record, UNLV still has a 22.1% chance of making the playoff.
Texas State Bobcats – 17%
If either Memphis, Liberty, or UNLV slips up, the Texas State Bobcats are waiting to pounce. GJ Kinne’s team is one of the trendy teams in college football right now and came close to securing the sort of Power Four resume win that helps power a playoff push against Arizona State in Week 3.
The Bobcats are a significant favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference, with a 57.9% chance of landing the title, according to the CFN FPM. Their defense gets after it, leading the conference in sacks (third nationally) and the Texas State offense led by Jordan McCloud is one of the most potent in the nation.
Boise State Broncos – 14%
A longstanding front-runner in Group of Five football, the Boise State Broncos were at the forefront of preseason College Football Playoff predictions and still have a great chance to represent the level in late December. If they had beaten Oregon in a close fought Week 2 game, their percentage chance would look a lot different.
As it is, the CFN FPM gives Spencer Danielson’s team a 14% chance of reaching the 12-team playoff. They don’t have another Power Four opportunity on their schedule, but with both Washington State and Oregon State to come, they only have a 6.9% of winning out with a projected 9-3 record. However, anything is possible when you have Ashton Jeanty on your team.
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