If you’re still getting used to seeing the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs playing each other as SEC opponents, you better become familiar with the matchup because this has the potential to be a preview of the SEC Championship Game.
While the Bulldogs have been tested — and beaten — the Longhorns have cruised, but does that mean you should back the team in orange? Our Georgia vs. Texas prediction has the latest odds, win probabilities, and a score prediction for arguably the biggest game of Week 8.
College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.Georgia vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Georgia vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -4.5 - Spread
Texas -4 - Moneyline
Texas -175, Georgia +145 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, rainy, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Although the spread started with Texas as a three-point favorite, as the week progressed, the line moved closer to the original number presented by the CFN FPM. All of the Longhorns’ previous wins over the Bulldogs have been by more points than that, and they’ve covered the spread by 8.1 points this season on their way to a 5-1 spread record.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, Georgia has covered the spread just once this year — the season-opening beatdown of the Clemson Tigers. As such, all signs point toward a Longhorns cover on Saturday night. However, our Georgia vs. Texas prediction explains why you should be cautious about throwing your life savings behind Steve Sarkisian’s team.
Georgia’s Winning Probability
FPM favors the Longhorns, but only slightly. The Bulldogs have a 36.4% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 4.5 points. This game represents Georgia’s toughest challenge of the year and the Bulldogs have a good chance to win out, if they can beat the Longhorns.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Texas: 36.4%
- vs. Florida: 93.7%
- at Ole Miss: 64.1%
- vs. Tennessee: 74.6%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 89.0%
Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, the Longhorns have a 63.6% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 4.5 points. This game represents Texas’ toughest challenge of the year, and the Longhorns have a good chance to go undefeated if they can beat the Bulldogs.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Georgia: 63.6%
- at Vanderbilt: 89.1%
- vs. Florida: 93.4%
- at Arkansas: 91.3%
- vs. Kentucky: 93.1%
- at Texas A&M: 74.9%
Prediction for Georgia vs. Texas
In watching both teams, I’ve been more impressed with Texas than Georgia, but that’s not always what betting is about.
The Bulldogs’ defense has been less stingy than we’re accustomed to seeing, but it’s not uncommon for a Kirby Smart team to get better as the year progresses. Texas’ schedule has also been light, to say the least.
Texas’ two signature wins are against Oklahoma and Michigan, two teams with serious offensive issues. The Longhorn defense is first in both passing defense and yards per pass allowed, but they haven’t exactly faced elite passing attacks.
Even the opponent Texas shares with Georgia (Mississippi State), isn’t a like-for-like comparison since Michael van Buren made his first career start against the Longhorns.
It’s not unfair to say that we truly don’t know how much of Texas’ defensive success is driven by the Longhorns and how much is driven by opponents.
Either way, Carson Beck is a step up in competition.
While Steve Sarkisian is no slouch, Kirby Smart is one of the best big-game coaches in college football. Much like we saw Dan Lanning throw things at Ohio State that the Buckeyes hadn’t seen, I think Smart and the Bulldogs can scheme up some opportunities on offense.
Texas’ offense has been solid, but Quinn Ewers struggled a bit against a multiple Oklahoma front. I think the defensive staff for Georgia can trick Ewers into a bad decision or two.
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I expect to see a version of Georgia that better resembles the team that came back against Alabama after halftime than before it.
I personally think this is a preview of the SEC Championship. It’s a big game, and I love Smart in big games. Lean the over, and take Georgia on the moneyline.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Texas 27
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