They may not have been the headliners, but the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Vanderbilt Commodores each left their mark on the 2024 college football season. Now, two of the sport’s most endearing underdogs face off in the Birmingham Bowl.
Who comes out on top in one of bowl season’s most intriguing matchups? Dive into our Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt prediction to see how we think it plays out.
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl Betting Preview
All Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 27, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia Tech -1.5 - Spread
Georgia Tech -3 - Moneyline
Georgia Tech -142, Vanderbilt +120 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Dec. 27, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Protective Stadium | Birmingham, AL - How To Watch
ESPN
Each team will be down a couple of players after starters entered the transfer portal, none bigger than Georgia Tech wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. Nevertheless, led by star quarterbacks Diego Pavia and Haynes King, both rosters are largely intact for the Birmingham Bowl.
The line on this game hasn’t moved, but the total has dropped significantly after starting at 54.5 total points. The decision of both quarterbacks to play makes this one of the most compelling bowl matchups on the calendar.
Georgia Tech’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is close to the Vegas line, making Georgia Tech a 1.5-point favorite.
- vs. Bowling Green: 51.8%
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Commodores are small underdogs. After getting off to a fast 6-3 start, Vanderbilt struggled down the stretch, losing their final three games to finish 6-6.
- vs. Vanderbilt: 48.2%
Prediction for Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
The line suggests a close contest, and I’m inclined to agree. Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech combined for 13 one-score games this season, with the Commodores finishing 3-4 and the Yellow Jackets going 4-2 in those nail-biters.
Setting aside FCS matchups, each team played just one game that ended with a scoring margin greater than two scores. In short, this one should go down to the wire.
It’s no mystery what these teams will try to do offensively. Vanderbilt will lean on misdirection and a touch of Pavia magic to generate explosive plays on the ground. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, will stick to Brent Key football: a grinding, 3-4 hour clinic of power running.
The Yellow Jackets’ approach is straightforward—3-4 yards per carry, wearing down the defense until they break a long run or hit a play-action strike later in the game.
Defensively, I’m curious to see if either team adjusts its typical strategy. Georgia Tech generally aims to dominate the line of scrimmage and force negative plays, but that aggression could backfire against a dynamic playmaker like Pavia.
On the other side, Vanderbilt employs a bend-don’t-break philosophy, often sitting in a two-high shell to limit explosive plays. That approach trades off shorter, consistent runs for the occasional mistake by the offense—an exchange Georgia Tech is more than happy to exploit.
If Vanderbilt plays soft, the Yellow Jackets can control the line of scrimmage, chew up the clock, and dictate the game’s tempo.
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Ultimately, I favor Georgia Tech’s offensive line to win the battle up front. If the Yellow Jackets avoid turnovers, they should move the ball consistently and put pressure on Pavia to deliver a flawless performance.
Down the stretch, we’ve seen teams effectively neutralize Pavia’s scrambling ability by getting after him with disciplined defensive lines. Clark Lea will need to scheme up some shot plays to keep Georgia Tech’s front honest.
Without that, this could feel like a replay of the South Carolina game, where patient offense and a sturdy defense eventually wore down Vanderbilt, leading to big plays late in the second half.
King’s mobility could be a difference-maker. If he converts a few critical third downs, I see Georgia Tech pulling away in the later stages. I’m leaning toward the under here—not because the offenses will stall, but because both teams excel at methodical, mistake-free drives.
Expect both offenses to have success, but without the fireworks. This game should be an entertaining chess match of adjustments, a slow dance where every possession counts.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 24, Vanderbilt 20
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