The “Fun Belt” weeknight slate continues in Week 9 as the 5-2 Georgia Southern Eagles go on the road to face the 3-4 Old Dominion Monarchs.
The line suggests this could be a trap game, as the home team is favored. Find out if we agree in this Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion prediction.
Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion Betting Preview
All Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia Southern -6.5 - Spread
Old Dominion -2 - Moneyline
Ole Dominion -130, Georgia Southern +110 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
7 p.m. ET - Location
S.B. Ballard Stadium | Norfolk, VA - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, clear, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
After beating the Eagles in Statesboro a year ago, the Monarchs enter the Week 9 Sun Belt clash as a surprising, small favorite. That win stands alone in the head-to-head record between the two teams, with Georgia Southern winning three straight (including two in Norfolk) in this fledgling conference rivalry.
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The spread and moneyline are a surprise given Georgia Southern’s recent form. The Eagles are flying high with some marquee wins, and they’ve been impressive in covering the spread, too. Clay Helton’s team is 5-1-1 this season, while Old Dominion is 4-3 against the spread. There are plenty of reasons to take the road team both straight up and against the spread.
Georgia Southern’s Winning Probability
FPM disagrees strongly with the spread here, giving the Eagles a 66.9% chance to win the game. This translates to an implied spread of about 6.5 points in favor of Georgia Southern.
The Eagles have a chance for a special season, as they’re slight favorites in every remaining game. Here are Georgia Southern’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at ODU: 66.9%
- at South Alabama: 53.4%
- vs. Troy: 76.6%
- at Coastal Carolina: 58.9%
- vs. Appalachian State: 68.8%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Georgia Southern would end the year with a 10-2 overall record and a perfect Sun Belt campaign. The Eagles are currently the second favorite to claim the conference crown behind the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
Old Dominion’s Winning Probability
FPM is lower on Old Dominion in this one, as the metric has them as 6.5-point underdogs. The Monarchs have a 33.1% chance to win the game, and they’ll be slight underdogs in all of their remaining games.
Here are Old Dominion’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Georgia Southern: 33.1%
- at Appalachian State: 38.9%
- vs. James Madison: 20.4%
- at Marshall: 33.1%
- at Arkansas State: 39.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Old Dominion would finish the 2024 season with a 3-9 overall record. After gaining bowl eligibility in two of the last three campaigns, that would constitute a disappointment and put pressure on head coach Ricky Rahne.
Prediction for Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion
The Monarchs made a quarterback change three games ago, but while the game results have improved, the actual offense hasn’t been substantially better. That said, Colton Joseph has protected the ball better and added a rushing element to the offense.
The offense still isn’t great (109th in yards per play), but the formula of playing bend-don’t-break defense and controlling the clock has helped the Monarchs win two straight in the conference.
Nevertheless, I really like the Eagles. JC French has been a revelation for a team that has lacked consistent quarterback play under Clay Helton, averaging around 250 yards per game and protecting the ball.
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This game will be won or lost in the red zone. Old Dominion’s defense is one of the best in the country at preventing red-zone scores, while Georgia Southern’s offense is one of the most consistent units near the end zone despite a struggling running game.
While the Eagles are built on offense, it’s been the defense that has excelled in recent weeks. Last week, they completely stifled a strong James Madison team, a week after the defense sparked a 20-point comeback against Marshall.
To win here, Old Dominion will need to hit some deep pass plays against a Georgia Southern defense that has occasionally been susceptible to such throws. The Monarchs haven’t done that well recently, and I think the Eagles can grind this out.
If the Monarchs get a few red-zone stops, it can be closer. Yet, I’m rolling with the better team here, even if they’re considered underdogs. This game could be low-scoring, as both teams have struggled to put up points recently.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 28, Old Dominion 20
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