The “Fun Belt” weeknight slate continues in Week 9 as the 5-2 Georgia Southern Eagles go on the road to face the 3-4 Old Dominion Monarchs.
The line suggests this could be a trap game, as the home team is favored. Find out if we agree in this Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion prediction.
Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion Betting Preview
All Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia Southern -6.5 - Spread
Old Dominion -2 - Moneyline
Ole Dominion -130, Georgia Southern +110 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Oct. 24, 7 p.m. ET - Location
S.B. Ballard Stadium | Norfolk, Virginia - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, clear, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The early spread is Old Dominion -2, as Vegas seems to view this as a trap game. The public hasn’t jumped on this at all, as the line hasn’t changed since its posting. With a total of 54 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 28-26 in favor of Old Dominion.
Georgia Southern’s Winning Probability
FPM disagrees strongly with the spread here, giving the Eagles a 66.9% chance to win the game. This translates to an implied spread of about 6.5 points in favor of Georgia Southern.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Eagles have a chance for a special season, as they’re slight favorites in every remaining game. Here are Georgia Southern’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at ODU: 66.9%
- at South Alabama: 53.4%
- vs. Troy: 76.6%
- at Coastal Carolina: 58.9%
- vs. Appalachian State: 68.8%
Old Dominion’s Winning Probability
FPM is lower on Old Dominion in this one, as the metric has them as 6.5-point underdogs. The Monarchs have a 33.1% chance to win the game, and they’ll be slight underdogs in all of their remaining games.
Here are Old Dominion’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Georgia Southern: 33.1%
- at Appalachian State: 38.9%
- vs. James Madison: 20.4%
- at Marshall: 33.1%
- at Arkansas State: 39.4%
Prediction for Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion
The Monarchs made a quarterback change three games ago, but while the game results have improved, the actual offense hasn’t been substantially better. That being said, Colton Joseph has protected the ball better and added a rushing element to the offense.
The offense still isn’t great (109th in yards per play), but the formula of playing bend-don’t-break defense and controlling the clock has helped the Monarchs win two straight in the conference.
Nevertheless, I really like the Eagles. JC French has been a revelation for a team that has lacked consistent quarterback play under Clay Helton, averaging around 250 yards per game and protecting the ball.
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This game will be won or lost in the red zone. Old Dominion’s defense is one of the best in the country at preventing red-zone scores, while Georgia Southern’s offense is one of the most consistent units near the end zone, despite a struggling running game.
While the Eagles are built on offense, it’s been the defense that has excelled in recent weeks. Last week, they completely stifled a strong James Madison team, a week after the defense sparked a 20-point comeback against Marshall.
To win here, Old Dominion will need to hit some deep pass plays against a Georgia Southern defense that has occasionally been susceptible to such throws. The Monarchs haven’t done that well recently, and I think the Eagles can grind this out.
If the Monarchs get a few red-zone stops, it can be closer. Yet, I’m rolling with the better team here, even if they’re considered underdogs. This game could be low scoring, as both teams have done recently.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 28, Old Dominion 20
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